Global climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests

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Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea

Publication . Assis, J.; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester

Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L. hyperborea. Because no genetic baseline is currently available for this species, our results may represent a first step in informing conservation and mitigation strategies. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2016-02Journal article

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How experimental physiology and ecological niche modelling can inform the management of marine bioinvasions?

Publication . Koerich, Gabrielle; Assis, Jorge; Costa, Giulia Burle; Sissini, Marina Nasri; Serrao, Ester; Rorig, Leonardo Rubi; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Barufi, Jose Bonomi; Horta, Paulo Antunes

Marine bioinvasions are increasing worldwide by a number of factors related to the anthroposphere, such as higher ship traffic, climate change and biotic communities' alterations. Generating information about species with high invasive potential is necessary to inform management decisions aiming to prevent their arrival and spread. Grateloupia turuturu, one of the most harmful invasive macroalgae, is capable of damaging ecosystem functions and services, and causing biodiversity loss. Here we developed an ecological niche model using occurrence and environmental data to infer the potential global distribution of G. turuturu. In addition, ecophysiological experiments were performed with G. turuturu populations from different climatic regions to test predictions regarding invasion risk. Our model results show high suitability in temperate and warm temperate regions around the world, with special highlight to some areas where this species still doesn't occur. Thalli representing a potential temperate region origin, were held at 10, 13, 16, 20 and 24 degrees C, and measurements of optimal quantum field (Fv/Fm) demonstrated a decrease of photosynthetic yield in the higher temperature. Thalli from the population already established in warm temperate South Atlantic were held at 18, 24 and 30 degrees C with high and low nutrient conditions. This material exposed to the higher temperature demonstrated a drop in photosynthetic yield and significant reduction of growth rate. The congregation of modelling and physiological approach corroborate the invasive potential of G. turuturu and indicate higher invasion risk in temperate zones. Further discussions regarding management initiatives must be fostered to mitigate anthropogenic transport and eventually promote eradication initiatives in source areas, with special focus in the South America. We propose that this combined approach can be used to assess the potential distribution and establishment of other marine invasive species. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2020-01Journal article

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Environmental drivers of rhodolith beds and epiphytes community along the South Western Atlantic coast

Publication . Carvalho, Vanessa F.; Assis, Jorge; Serrao, Ester; Nunes, Jose M.; Anderson, Antonio B.; Batista, Manuela B.; Barufi, Jose B.; Silva, João; Pereira, Sonia M. B.; Horta, Paulo A.

Environmental conditions shape the occurrence and abundance of habitat-building organisms at global scales. Rhodolith beds structure important hard substrate habitats for a large number of marine benthic organisms. These organisms can benefit local biodiversity levels, but also compete with rhodoliths for essential resources. Therefore, understanding the factors shaping the distribution of rhodoliths and their associated communities along entire distributional ranges is of much relevance for conservational biology, particularly in the scope of future environmental changes. Here we predict suitable habitat areas and identify the main environmental drivers of rhodoliths' variability and of associated epiphytes along a large-scale latitudinal gradient. Occurrence and abundance data were collected throughout the South-western Atlantic coast (SWA) and modelled against high resolution environmental predictors extracted from Bio-Oracle. The main drivers for rhodolith occurrence were light availability and temperature at the bottom of the ocean, while abundance was explained by nitrate, temperature and current velocity. Tropical regions showed the highest abundance of rhodoliths. No latitudinal pattern was detected in the variability of epiphytes abundance. However, significant differences were found between sampled sites regarding the composition of predominant taxa. The predictors influencing such differences were temperature and nitrate. The Tropical region is abundant in species with warm-water affinities, decreasing toward warm temperate region. The expressive occurrence of tropical species not referred before for warm temperate beds indicate a plausible tropicalization event.

2020-02Journal article

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Major shifts at the range edge of marine forests: the combined effects of climate changes and limited dispersal

Publication . Assis, J.; Berecibar, E.; Claro, B.; Alberto, F.; Reed, D.; Raimondi, P.; A, Serrão

Global climate change is likely to constrain low latitude range edges across many taxa and habitats. Such is the case for NE Atlantic marine macroalgal forests, important ecosystems whose main structuring species is the annual kelp Saccorhiza polyschides. We coupled ecological niche modelling with simulations of potential dispersal and delayed development stages to infer the major forces shaping range edges and to predict their dynamics. Models indicated that the southern limit is set by high winter temperatures above the physiological tolerance of overwintering microscopic stages and reduced upwelling during recruitment. The best range predictions were achieved assuming low spatial dispersal (5 km) and delayed stages up to two years (temporal dispersal). Reconstructing distributions through time indicated losses of similar to 30% from 1986 to 2014, restricting S. polyschides to upwelling regions at the southern edge. Future predictions further restrict populations to a unique refugium in northwestern Iberia. Losses were dependent on the emissions scenario, with the most drastic one shifting similar to 38% of the current distribution by 2100. Such distributional changes might not be rescued by dispersal in space or time (as shown for the recent past) and are expected to drive major biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem functioning.

2017-03Journal article

Open access

Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

Publication . Assis, J.; Araujo, Miguel B.; Serrao, Ester A.

Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.

2018-01Journal article

Restricted access