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Publication
Improving the identification of RBF predictive models to forecast the Portuguese electricity consumption
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Abstract The Portuguese power grid company wants to improve the accuracy of the electricity
load demand forecast within an horizon of 48 hours, in order to identify the need of reserves to be
allocated in the Iberian Market. In this work we present updated results on the identi cation of
radial basis function neural network load demand predictive models. The methodology follows
the principles already employed by the authors in di erent applications: the NN models are
trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using a modi ed training criterion, and the
model structure (number of neurons and input terms) is evolved using a multi-objective genetic
algorithm. The set of goals and objectives used in the model optimisation re
ect di erent
requirements in the design: obtaining good generalisation ability, good balance between one-
step-ahead prediction accuracy and model complexity, and good multi-step prediction accuracy.
In this work the prediction horizon was increased, the model tness assessment was altered, and
the model structure search space was enlarged. Results are also presented for a predictive nearest
neighbour type approach, which establishes a baseline for predictive methods comparison.
Description
Keywords
Electricity load demand Radial basis functions Neural networks Prediction Modelling
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Ferreira, P. M.; Ruano, A. E. Pestana, Rui. Improving the identification of RBF predictive models to forecast the Portuguese electricity consumption, Trabalho apresentado em Control Methodologies and Technology for Energy Efficiency, In IFAC Conference on Control Methodologies and Technology for Energy Efficiency (2010), Vilamoura, 2010.