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Projected climate change and limited dispersal potential threaten the seahorse species Hippocampus hippocampus and Hippocampus guttulatus

2025-08-21Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorPeiffer, Friederike
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorLima, André R. A.
dc.contributor.authorHenriques, Sofia
dc.contributor.authorPardal, Miguel A.
dc.contributor.authorMartinho, Filipe
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Jorge Manuel Santos
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Emanuel J.
dc.contributor.authorCorreia, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Gonçalo J. F.
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-24T12:10:02Z
dc.date.available2025-09-24T12:10:02Z
dc.date.issued2025-08-21
dc.description.abstractClimate change is predicted to drive species redistribution, altering the composition of marine communities and affecting ecosystem functioning. There is increasing evidence that fish distributions follow a trend of poleward expansion, while realised niches often decrease in range size. This study aimed to assess the influence of oceanographic connectivity and intrinsic dispersal mechanisms on changes in suitable habitats of the European seahorses (Hippocampus hippocampus and Hippocampus guttulatus) from the present (2010–2020) until the end of the century (2090–2100). Habitat suitability was assessed using Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) coupled with biophysical modelling to estimate oceanographic connectivity. The results show that intrinsic dispersal mechanisms and oceanographic connectivity limit the northward range expansion, while predicted habitat loss remained constant in all dispersal scenarios, with the highest habitat loss forecasted in the Mediterranean and northern Africa. Consequently, considering restricted dispersal, H. guttulatus was projected to experience a negative range change (or habitat contraction [-45% (SSP5)] as opposed to an expansion with unlimited dispersal (standard model) [+ 6% (SSP5)]. On the other hand, for H. hippocampus, a more limited range expansion [+ 8% (SSP5)] was forecasted compared to the standard model [+ 17% (SSP5)]. In addition, the lower emission scenario (SSP2) resulted in half of the habitat losses, while maintaining climate refugia for H. guttulatus populations in the north Mediterranean, Iberian Atlantic Coast, and Black Sea. This study highlights the importance of considering dispersal abilities when assessing climate change impacts on marine species distribution.eng
dc.description.sponsorship2020.07299. BD; LA/P/0092/2020; 2023.08241.CEECIND; HORIZON ID: 101059823
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00227-025-04717-1
dc.identifier.eissn1432-1793
dc.identifier.issn0025-3162
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/27733
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relationMARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre
dc.relationAquatic Research Infrastructure Network
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
dc.relationCentre for Functional Ecology - Science for People & the Planet
dc.relationClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
dc.relation.ispartofMarine Biology
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectEuropean seahorses
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelling
dc.subjectHabitat loss
dc.subjectClimate refugia · Connectivity
dc.subjectConservation
dc.titleProjected climate change and limited dispersal potential threaten the seahorse species Hippocampus hippocampus and Hippocampus guttulatuseng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleMARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre
oaire.awardTitleAquatic Research Infrastructure Network
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Functional Ecology - Science for People & the Planet
oaire.awardTitleClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FMAR%2F04292%2F2013/PT
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oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND5ed/2022.00861.CEECIND%2FCP1729%2FCT0003/PT
oaire.citation.issue9
oaire.citation.startPage150
oaire.citation.titleMarine Biology
oaire.citation.volume172
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oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameGonçalves
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameJorge Manuel Santos
person.identifier356846
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.ciencia-id1013-ED6A-65EB
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7704-8190
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
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person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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