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Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean

2021Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorRamos Martins, Manuel
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorAbecasis, David
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-18T11:59:05Z
dc.date.available2022-06-02T00:30:15Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractAim: With climate change challenging marine biodiversity and resource management, it is crucial to anticipate future latitudinal and depth shifts under contrasting global change scenarios to support policy-relevant biodiversity impact assessments [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)]. We aim to demonstrate the benefits of complying with the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and limiting environmental changes, by assessing future distributional shifts of 10 commercially important demersal fish species. Location: Northern Atlantic Ocean. Time period: Analyses of distributional shifts compared near present-day conditions (2000–2017) with two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of future climate changes (2090–2100): one following the Paris Agreement climate forcing (RCP2.6) and another without stringent mitigation measures (RCP8.5). Major taxa studied: Demersal fish. Methods: We use machine learning distribution models coupled with biologically meaningful predictors to project future latitudinal and depth shifts. Structuring projections with information beyond temperature-based predictors allowed us to encompass the physiological limitations of species better. Results: Our models highlighted the additional roles of temperature, primary productivity and dissolved oxygen in shaping fish distributions (average relative contribution to the models of 32.12 ± 10.24, 15.6 ± 7.5 and 12.1 ± 6.1%, respectively). We anticipated a generalized trend of poleward shifts in both future scenarios, with aggravated changes in suitable area with RCP8.5 (average area loss with RCP2.6 = 13.3 ± 4.1%; RCP8.5 = 40.9 ± 13.3%). Shifts to deeper waters were also predicted to be of greater magnitude with RCP8.5 (average depth gain = 25.4 ± 21.5 m) than with RCP2.6 (average depth gain = 10.4 ± 7.9 m). Habitat losses were projected mostly in the Mediterranean, Celtic and Irish Seas, the southern areas of the North Sea and along the NE coast of North America. Main conclusions: Inclusion of biologically meaningful predictors beyond temperature in species distribution modelling can improve predictive performances. Limiting future climate changes by complying with the Paris Agreement can translate into reduced distributional shifts, supporting biodiversity conservation and resource management.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipMAR2020; European Maritime and Fisheries Fund; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologiapt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/geb.13327pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1466-822X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/15638
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWileypt_PT
dc.subjectBiologically meaningful predictorspt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectDemersal fishpt_PT
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic fisheriespt_PT
dc.subjectParis agreementpt_PT
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modellingpt_PT
dc.titleBiologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Oceanpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Ecology and Biogeographypt_PT
person.familyNameRamos Martins
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameAbecasis
person.givenNameManuel
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameDavid
person.identifier298405
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.ciencia-id7E1E-B2F7-B966
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6477-2518
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9802-8153
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.ridB-2871-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id23017767300
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd84d7181-b9be-47e0-af4b-4fdbcea13ee4

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