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Long-term population dynamics: Theory and reality in a peatland ecosystem

2018-01Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorConnor, Simon
dc.contributor.authorColombaroli, Daniele
dc.contributor.authorConfortini, Federico
dc.contributor.authorGobet, Erika
dc.contributor.authorIlyashuk, Boris P.
dc.contributor.authorIlyashuk, Elena A.
dc.contributor.authorvan Leeuwen, Jacqueline F. N.
dc.contributor.authorLamentowicz, Mariusz
dc.contributor.authorvan der Knaap, Willem O.
dc.contributor.authorMalysheva, Elena
dc.contributor.authorMarchetto, Aldo
dc.contributor.authorMargalitadze, Nino
dc.contributor.authorMazei, Yuri
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Edward A. D.
dc.contributor.authorPayne, Richard J.
dc.contributor.authorAmmann, Brigitta
dc.date.accessioned2018-12-07T14:53:05Z
dc.date.available2018-12-07T14:53:05Z
dc.date.issued2018-01
dc.description.abstract1. Population dynamics is a field rich in theory and poor in long-term observational data. Finding sources of long-term data is critical as ecosystems around the globe continue to change in ways that current theories and models have failed to predict. Here we show how long-term ecological data can improve our understanding about palaeo-population change in response to external environmental factors, antecedent conditions and community diversity. 2. We examined a radiometrically dated sediment core from the Didachara Mire in the mountains of south-western Georgia (Caucasus) and analysed multiple biological proxies (pollen, fern spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, midges, mites and testate amoebae). Numerical techniques, including multivariate ordination, rarefaction, independent splitting and trait analysis, were used to assess the major drivers of changes in community diversity and population stability. Integrated multi-proxy analyses are very rare in the Caucasus, making this a unique record of long-term ecological change in a global biodiversity hotspot. 3. Synthesis. Population changes in the terrestrial community coincided primarily with external environmental changes, while populations within the peatland community were affected by both internal and external drivers at different times. In general, our observations accord with theoretical predictions that population increases lead to greater stability and declines lead to instability. Random variation and interspecific competition explain population dynamics that diverged from predictions. Population change and diversity trends were positively correlated in all taxonomic groups, suggesting that population-level instability is greater in more diverse communities, even though diverse communities are themselves more stable. There is a continuing need to confront population theory with long-term data to test the predictive success of theoretical frameworks, thereby improving their ability to predict future change.
dc.description.sponsorshipSwiss National Science Foundation [3100OA-101218]; Russian Scientific Fund [14-14-00891]; Royal Society [IE 150173]
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/1365-2745.12865
dc.identifier.issn0022-0477
dc.identifier.issn1365-2745
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11348
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherWiley
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectClimate-change
dc.subjectFunctional traits
dc.subjectEcological change
dc.subjectTestate Amebas
dc.subjectSouth caucasus
dc.subjectYounger dryas
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectPollen
dc.subjectForest
dc.subjectVegetation
dc.titleLong-term population dynamics: Theory and reality in a peatland ecosystem
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage346
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.startPage333
oaire.citation.titleJournal of Ecology
oaire.citation.volume106
person.familyNameConnor
person.givenNameSimon
person.identifier1096134
person.identifier.ciencia-id171B-8713-654E
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5685-2390
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7102766997
rcaap.rightsopenAccess
rcaap.typearticle
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione75ca68e-b2e4-48e6-b219-74238ca34c3b
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverye75ca68e-b2e4-48e6-b219-74238ca34c3b

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