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Integrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invader

2019-05Journal article Open Access
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dc.contributor.authorChefaoui, Rosa
dc.contributor.authorSerebryakova, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorEngelen, Aschwin
dc.contributor.authorViard, Frédérique
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-21T10:19:02Z
dc.date.available2019-05-21T10:19:02Z
dc.date.issued2019-05
dc.description.abstractAim Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many species. Hence, reproductive phenology is sensitive to warming and is important to be considered for reliable predictions of species distributions. This is particularly relevant for rapidly spreading non-indigenous species (NIS). In this study, we forecast the future ranges of a NIS, the seaweed Sargassum muticum, including its reproductive phenology. Location Coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Pacific and Atlantic oceans). Methods We used ecological niche modelling to predict the distribution of S. muticum under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes. We then refined our predictions with a hybrid model using sea surface temperature constraints on reproductive phenology. Results Under the most severe climate change scenario, we predicted northward expansions which may have significant ecological consequences for subarctic coastal ecosystems. However, in lower latitudes, habitats currently occupied by S. muticum will no longer be suitable, creating opportunities for substantial community changes. The temperature constraints imposed by the reproductive window were shown to restrict the modelled future species expansion strongly. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the total range area was expected to increase by 61.75% by 2100, but only by 1.63% when the reproductive temperature window was considered. Main conclusions Altogether these results exemplify the need to integrate phenology better to improve the prediction of future distributional shifts at local and regional scales.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipAgência financiadora Número do subsídio Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia CCMAR/Multi/04326/2019 FCT-BIODIVERSA/004/2015 FCT-SEAS-ERA/0001/2012 SFRH/BPD/107878/2015 SFRH/BPD/85040/2012 Erasmus Mundus Doctoral Programme MARES on Marine Ecosystem Health Conservation MARES_13_08 Pew Marinept_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/ddi.12910pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1366-9516
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/12532
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherWileypt_PT
dc.relationInvasive seaweeds in rising temperatures: impacts and the role of acclimation and adaptation
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectInvasive speciespt_PT
dc.subjectMarine algapt_PT
dc.subjectPhenologypt_PT
dc.subjectSargassum muticumpt_PT
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelspt_PT
dc.titleIntegrating reproductive phenology in ecological niche models changed the predicted future ranges of a marine invaderpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleInvasive seaweeds in rising temperatures: impacts and the role of acclimation and adaptation
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/SEAS-ERA%2F0001%2F2012/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/SFRH/SFRH%2FBPD%2F85040%2F2012/PT
oaire.citation.endPage700pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue5pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage688pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleDiversity and Distributionspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume25pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStreamSFRH
person.familyNameChefaoui
person.familyNameEngelen
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameRosa
person.givenNameAschwin
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id911A-9A0C-744D
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-5031-4858
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9579-9606
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridD-3906-2009
person.identifier.ridM-3432-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id8636216500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6701622770
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb42b598d-1235-47a0-803c-9226c3c63173
relation.isAuthorOfPublication33d5a223-f2c9-4c68-984f-9213f15a05b0
relation.isAuthorOfPublication45ccfe90-155c-4d6f-9e86-8f0fd064005f
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery45ccfe90-155c-4d6f-9e86-8f0fd064005f
relation.isProjectOfPublicatione6569180-059a-4232-bbf1-b44fa5afffdf
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