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Seagrass biodiversity under the latestā€generation scenarios of projected climate change

2024-10-16Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorGouvĆŖa, Lidiane
dc.contributor.authorFragkopoulou, Eliza
dc.contributor.authorAraĆŗjo, Miguel B.
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester A.
dc.contributor.authorAssis, Jorge
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-19T13:21:34Z
dc.date.available2024-11-19T13:21:34Z
dc.date.issued2024-10-16
dc.description.abstractAimThe potentially cascading consequences of climate changes on redistribution of habitat-forming species, like seagrasses, remain a major research gap. Empirical demonstrations of local population changes are increasingly reported without a globally integrated predictive framework as a leading testable hypothesis. Therefore, here, we aimed to estimate changes in species richness, community composition, and areas of climatic refugia under future climate scenarios.LocationGlobal scale.Time PeriodPresent-day conditions (from 2010 to 2020) and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of future climate change (from 2090 to 2100).Major Taxa StudiesSeagrasses (plantae).MethodsWe coupled seagrass occurrences with environmental predictors (temperature, salinity, nitrate, wave energy, and ice) in stacked species distribution modelling.ResultsModels estimated a present global extent of 917,169 km2 with high species richness in Temperate Australasia, Indo-Pacific, and Temperate North Pacific. Future projections predicted widespread spatial redistribution, with Arctic expansions, losses in lower latitudes, and deeper vertical ranges, while globally maintaining the area extent occupied worldwide by seagrass species (only 5% of change). Species richness increased poleward under more drastic scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), with losses in tropical zones (30oN to 30oS). Local climatic refugia are retained in all scenarios but decrease under higher emissions. Additionally, even where seagrass species remain, widespread community composition changes were predicted.Main ConclusionsOur findings serve as baselines to inform, anticipate, and mitigate cascading consequences of shifts in seagrass ecosystems that provide essential services for humanity.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipPTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020; FCT AGA-KHAN/540316524/2019; EU-BiodivERsA BiodivRestore-253; DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035; 442685/2023-8
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/jbi.15021
dc.identifier.eissn1365-2699
dc.identifier.issn0305-0270
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/26297
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.relationCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
dc.relationPotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
dc.relationClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Biogeography
dc.rights.uriN/A
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectClimate changes
dc.subjectClimatic refugia
dc.subjectSeagrasses
dc.subjectSpecies richness
dc.subjectSSP scenarios
dc.subjectStacked SDM
dc.subjectTurnover
dc.titleSeagrass biodiversity under the latestā€generation scenarios of projected climate changeeng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Marine and Environmental Research
oaire.awardTitlePotential consequences of future climate changes for marine forest gene pools
oaire.awardTitleClimate-informed prioritization of marine biodiversity hotspots to support the implementation of the post-2020 biodiversity framework
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
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oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND5ed/2022.00861.CEECIND%2FCP1729%2FCT0003/PT
oaire.citation.titleJournal of Biogeography
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
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oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameGouvĆŖa
person.familyNameFragkopoulou
person.familyNameSerrao
person.familyNameAssis
person.givenNameLidiane
person.givenNameEliza
person.givenNameEster A.
person.givenNameJorge
person.identifierC-6686-2012
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person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7010-5500
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0557-3954
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55500349800
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