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Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic

2018-01Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorAssis, J.
dc.contributor.authorAraujo, Miguel B.
dc.contributor.authorSerrao, Ester A.
dc.date.accessioned2018-12-07T14:53:04Z
dc.date.available2018-12-07T14:53:04Z
dc.date.issued2018-01
dc.description.abstractIntraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing.
dc.description.sponsorshipPOCI-01-0145-FEDER-006821
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.13818
dc.identifier.eissn1365-2486
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11339
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationExtant or extinct tipping points - climate changes drive genetic diversity and dynamics of range edge populations as evolutionary hotspots
dc.relationGlobal climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests
dc.relationFunctional Variability and Dynamics of Responses of Marine Forests to Global Change - MARFOR
dc.relationResearch Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectSpecies distribution models
dc.subjectEdge genetic diversity
dc.subjectLaminaria-Hyperborea
dc.subjectGlacial Refugia
dc.subjectRange-edge
dc.subjectSaccorhiza-Polyschides
dc.subjectFish communities
dc.subjectMarine forests
dc.subjectCoral-reefs
dc.subjectRear edge
dc.titleProjected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleExtant or extinct tipping points - climate changes drive genetic diversity and dynamics of range edge populations as evolutionary hotspots
oaire.awardTitleGlobal climate changes driving genetic diversity of marine forests
oaire.awardTitleFunctional Variability and Dynamics of Responses of Marine Forests to Global Change - MARFOR
oaire.awardTitleResearch Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/EXCL%2FAAG-GLO%2F0661%2F2012/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FBIA%2F50027%2F2013/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBPD%2F111003%2F2015/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FMAR-EST%2F6053%2F2014/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/BIODIVERSA%2F0004%2F2015/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FBIA%2F50027%2F2013/PT
oaire.citation.endPageE66
oaire.citation.issue1
oaire.citation.startPageE55
oaire.citation.titleGlobal Change Biology
oaire.citation.volume24
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream5876
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameAssis
person.familyNameSerrao
person.givenNameJorge
person.givenNameEster A.
person.identifierC-6686-2012
person.identifier.ciencia-id5C1D-05B6-29F7
person.identifier.ciencia-id5B13-B26E-B1EC
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6624-4820
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1316-658X
person.identifier.ridG-9688-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id53463298700
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7004093604
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccess
rcaap.typearticle
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