Improving the response to operational pollution in the South Iberian coast A Super-Ensemble backtracking approach

Abstract

Although for the general public marine oil pollution happens when an oil tanker sinks in the ocean or an accident occurs in an oil platform, most of the oil entering the world ocean does it along less obvious paths. This research work focus on operational spills. It provides a first indication of the uncertainty associated to backtracking simulations using solutions from several operational models available on the internet for the South Iberia region. The suitability of using a Super-Ensemble approach as a way of minimizing the uncertainty was also investigated. The methodology was validated using drifting buoys available for the region. Results show the advantages of using the Super-Ensemble while pointing out for the importance of the atmospheric forcing in this region due to its characteristic mesoscale activity. The absence of more trajectories sparse in time and geographic coverage was a limitation found.