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- A previsão com modelos de espaço de estado: Uma aplicação à economia portuguesaPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Guerreiro, Raúl Filipe C.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.A previsão com modelos de espaço de estado: modelo estrutural, modelo espaço estados (MEE), previsão com filtro de Kalman.
- Convergir para um novo paradigma de ensinoPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Os sistemas de ensino estão actualmente expostos a um enorme desafio associado à prossecução do estabelecimento de uma àrea de ensino superior europeu comum até 2010.
- Persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indicesPublication . Andraz, Jorge; Guerreiro, Raúl Filipe C.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Volatility persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indices and of some of its components is analyzed, and tests of whether persistence has changed over time are performed. Given the typical leading indicator behavior of financial variables, understanding and characterizing the properties of these indices may help shed light on the behavior of the tourism sector and of its resilience to crises. For the purpose of analysis, our sample is split into three subsamples according to the World tourism cycle: (i) from January 1996 to December 2002; (ii) from January 2003 to August 2007; and (iii) from September 2007 to July 2014. Results suggest the existence of long-memory dynamics driving series volatility, and that shocks to volatility tend to be more persistent during periods of turmoil and affect regions differently.
- Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for PortugalPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.We propose the use of a tool recently introduced by Gayer (2010), known as the "economic climate tracer", to analyze and monitor the cyclical evolution of tourism source markets to Portugal. Considering the period 1987-2015, we evaluate how tourism to Portugal has been affected by economic cycles. This tool is useful as it clearly illustrates the evolutionary patterns of different markets, and allows us to identify close relationships with economic fluctuations. We found that German tourism plays a leading role, since its movements are followed with delays by tourism flows from other countries, and exhibits higher resilience to shocks. Also, domestic and Spanish tourism have both displayed less irregular behaviors than tourism from other source markets. On the contrary, tourism from the Netherlands and the UK, have displayed irregular patterns, which demonstrates the urgency to diversify tourism source markets to reduce the country's vulnerability to external shocks and economic cycles. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- Dinâmicas sectoriais no AlgarvePublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Em Portugal, e em particular na região do Algarve, o sector do turismo tem assumido uma importância inegável como motor do desenvolvimento regional, dados os efeitos directos e indirectos gerados sobre os restantes sectores de actividade económica.
- Threshold effects in monetary policy: evidence for the EMUPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Gouveia, Pedro; Pimpão, Adriano; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.This paper uses threshold models for purposes of analysing the interest rate behaviour defined by the European Central Bank, as prescribed by the Taylor rule, for the EMU member states from January 1999 2008, Évora, Portugal 26 and July 2007.
- Os determinantes do crescimento económico português: significância e causalidadePublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Este artigo pretende avaliar a importância destes factores no crescimento económico portugês.
- Modelling and forecasting the UK tourism growth cycle in AlgarvePublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Gouveia, Pedro; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Over the past three decades, Portugal has developed a strong economic dependence on tourism, which has several implications for the country's overall economic development. Tourism is an activity that is interrelated strongly with the economic system since Portugal as a whole and specific regions in particular rely on the performance of tourism for their economic activity. Moreover, because economic cycles affect tourism development, it is highly vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Most tourists who visit Portugal are from the European Union, especially Western Europe. Statistics are based on the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and other similar establishments. In 2005, the main source markets were the UK (30.7%), Germany (16.5%), Spain (11.5%), the Netherlands (6.8%), France (4.7%), Ireland (3.6%) and Italy (3.1%). These values show that the UK has the greatest share of visitors to Algarve. The purpose of this paper is to propose a modelling approach that best fits the tourism flow pattern in order to support forecasting. The paper contributes to our understanding of the relationship between economic cycles and tourism flows to Portugal (Algarve) and explores the potential of applying the diffusion index model proposed by Stock and Watson (1999, 2002) for tourism demand forecasting.
- What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?Publication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.The purpose of this paper is to analyse possible casual relationships between exports, inward foreign investment and economic growth in Portugal and identify their direction. The paper uses the three stage procedure based on unit root, cointegration and causalty tests applied to annual data from 1977 to 2004.
- Persistence change in tourism dataPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.The authors apply recently proposed persistence change tests to inbound tourism series in order to evaluate whether their properties have changed over time. By using quarterly series of the number of overnight stays in hotel accommodation and similar establishments in the Algarve, from 1987:01 to 2008:03, they gathered evidence of persistence change in all series. In particular, a change from I(1) to I(0) was detected for some countries, while for others the direction change was not clear-cut. These results have implications from a policy perspective and shed light on the generally accepted conviction that policy decision processes should not ignore the fact that, in general, tourism inbound series display mean reverting behaviour, being only temporarily affected by external shocks.