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Determinantes da estrutura de capital: efeito de variáveis micro e macroeconómicas no setor hoteleiro em Portugal - uma análise de dados em painel
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A estrutura de capital investiga a forma como as empresas financiam os seus investimentos e a identificação dos determinantes que afetam a estrutura de capital é crucial no entendimento das decisões de investimento e de financiamento das empresas.
A estrutura de capital ganhou maior relevância após o trabalho de Modigliani e Miller (1958). Esse trabalho serviu como referência para o desenvolvimento de várias teorias sobre a estrutura de capital, nomeadamente agrupadas em teoria do trade-off e teoria da pecking order.
Este estudo pretende analisar os determinantes de natureza micro e macroeconómica da estrutura de capital, de uma amostra de 1213 PME do setor hoteleiro em Portugal, obtida através da base de dados Amadeus, para o período de 2014-2018, utilizando dados em painel. A variável dependente estudada foi o endividamento total. Como variáveis independentes foram consideradas variáveis microeconómicas e variáveis macroeconómicas. As de natureza microeconómica foram a rendibilidade, a tangibilidade do ativo, a dimensão, a poupança fiscal não associada à dívida, o crescimento e a reputação. Por sua vez, as de natureza macroeconómica foram o crescimento do PIB e a taxa de inflação.
Os resultados demonstram que as variáveis rendibilidade, poupança fiscal não associada à dívida, reputação e inflação apresentam uma relação negativa com o endividamento. As variáveis tangibilidade do ativo, dimensão e crescimento do PIB apresentam uma relação positiva com o endividamento. A variável crescimento não é estatisticamente significativa, pelo que não tem poder explicativo no que tange ao endividamento das PME hoteleiras em Portugal. As variáveis de natureza macroeconómica apresentaram maior poder explicativo em relação ao endividamento total do que as variáveis microeconómicas.
Os resultados obtidos neste estudo conferem aderência à teoria do trade-off e à teoria da pecking order como teorias explicativas da estrutura de capital das PME hoteleiras em Portugal.
The capital structure investigates the way how companies finance their investments and the determinants identification that affect the capital structure is crucial in understanding companies investment and financing decisions. The capital structure obtained more relevance after the work of Modigliani and Miller (1958). Their work served as a reference for the development of several theories on the capital structure, namely grouped in the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. This study aims to analyze the determinants of micro and macroeconomic nature of the capital structure, from a sample of 1213 SME in the hotel sector in Portugal, obtained through the Amadeus database, for the period 2014-2018, using panel data model. The dependent variable studied was total debt. As independent variables, microeconomic variables and macroeconomic variables were considered. The microeconomic variables were profitability, asset tangibility, size, non-debt tax shields, growth and reputation. In turn, the macroeconomic variables were GDP growth and inflation rate. The results show that the variables profitability, non-debt tax shields, reputation and inflation rate have a negative relationship with indebtedness. The variables asset tangibility, size and GDP growth have a positive relationship with indebtedness. The growth variable is not statistically significant, so it has no explanatory power regarding to the indebtedness of hotel SME in Portugal. The macroeconomic variables showed greater explanatory power in relation to indebtedness than microeconomic variables. The results obtained in this study provide adherence to the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory as explanatory theories of the capital structure of hotel SME in Portugal.
The capital structure investigates the way how companies finance their investments and the determinants identification that affect the capital structure is crucial in understanding companies investment and financing decisions. The capital structure obtained more relevance after the work of Modigliani and Miller (1958). Their work served as a reference for the development of several theories on the capital structure, namely grouped in the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. This study aims to analyze the determinants of micro and macroeconomic nature of the capital structure, from a sample of 1213 SME in the hotel sector in Portugal, obtained through the Amadeus database, for the period 2014-2018, using panel data model. The dependent variable studied was total debt. As independent variables, microeconomic variables and macroeconomic variables were considered. The microeconomic variables were profitability, asset tangibility, size, non-debt tax shields, growth and reputation. In turn, the macroeconomic variables were GDP growth and inflation rate. The results show that the variables profitability, non-debt tax shields, reputation and inflation rate have a negative relationship with indebtedness. The variables asset tangibility, size and GDP growth have a positive relationship with indebtedness. The growth variable is not statistically significant, so it has no explanatory power regarding to the indebtedness of hotel SME in Portugal. The macroeconomic variables showed greater explanatory power in relation to indebtedness than microeconomic variables. The results obtained in this study provide adherence to the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory as explanatory theories of the capital structure of hotel SME in Portugal.
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Keywords
Determinantes da estrutura de capital Setor hoteleiro PME Dados em painel Variáveis microeconómicas Variáveis macroeconómicas