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Variability in storm climate along the Gulf of Cadiz: the role of large scale atmospheric forcing and implications to coastal hazards
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
In the context of increased coastal hazards due
to variability in storminess patterns, the danger of coastal
damages and/or morphological changes is related to the
sum of sea level conditions, storm surge, maximum wave
height and run up values. In order to better understand the
physical processes that cause the variability of the above
parameters a 44 years reanalysis record (HIPOCAS) was
used. The HIPOCAS time-series was validated with real
wave and sea-level data using linear and vector correlation
methods. In the present work changes in the magnitude,
duration, frequency and approach direction of the Atlantic
storms over the Gulf of Cadiz (SW Iberian Peninsula)
were identified by computing various storm characteristics
such as maximum wave height, total energy per storm wave
direction and storm duration. The obtained time-series were
compared with large-scale atmospheric indices such as the
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic pattern.
The results show a good correlation between negative
NAO values and increased storminess over the entire Gulf of Cadiz. Furthermore, negative NAO values were correlated
with high residual sea level values. Finally, a joint
probability analysis of storm and sea level analysis resulted
in increased probabilities of the two events happening at
the same time indicating higher vulnerability of the coast
and increased coastal risks. The above results were compared
with coastal inundation events that took place over
the last winter seasons in the province of Cadiz.
Description
Keywords
NAO EA Wave height Sea level Joint probability Storm climate
Citation
Publisher
Springer Verlag