Understanding the Atlantic influence on climate and vegetation dynamics in western Iberia over the last 2000 years

Predicting the environmental impact of climate change in extremely sensitive areas, like western Iberia, requires an understanding of the long-term interactions between climate and vegetation. Here we present a novel hightemporal resolution multiproxy analysis, including plant-wax n-alkane isotope data, pollen analysis, macrocharcoal identification, chironomid and diatom records of sediments from a mountain lake in central Portugal. We examined the evolution of the Atlantic and Mediterranean climate influences over the last two millennia, exploring their connection with major atmospheric patterns and impacts on the climatic signal and vegetation dynamics in this understudied region. During the Roman Period (RP; ca. -200 – 500 AD), the study area was characterized by grass dominance, with high temperatures indicated by chironomid composition and microcharcoal content. The increase in plant-wax δ2 H values during this period suggests a shift from wet to dry conditions. The Early Middle Ages (EMA; ca. 500–900 AD) were characterized by colder and a transition to wetter conditions, as indicated by the vegetation and plant-wax n-alkane isotope data. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 900–1300 AD) was generally warm, with a short initial lake level drop. This period exhibits the maximum expansion of the Mediterranean forest over the last 2 ka and possibly proximal moisture sources. During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300–1850 AD), a reduction of the Mediterranean forest and a strong depletion of plant-wax δ2 H values suggest cold and wet conditions with strong influence of remote Atlantic moisture, with the coldest and wettest phase of the last 2 ka detected between 1550 and 1900 AD. The post-LIA period, from 1900 AD onwards, shows a change to the present warmer and drier conditions, in a highly anthropized landscape. We also demonstrate that major changes in climate have influenced vegetation patterns, with these changes mainly controlled by large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This underscores the sensitivity of western Iberian ecosystems to climate shifts, enriches the current regional understanding of climate-vegetation interplay, and offers valuable insights for future climate change projections.