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- A tourism research agenda for PortugalPublication . Silva, João Albino; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; Mendes, Júlio; Pereira, Luis NobreThe need to direct research towards the tourism industry is related to the increasingly competitive environment it fi nds itself in, especially in terms of services rendered, having grown more complex in the features and critique that comprise the tourist experience, and as economic and social agents become more selective regarding both demand and supply. Possessing information and the proper understanding of the real needs of information users and those responsible for public and private decision-making processes at the action and intervention levels becomes a fundamental issue for sustainable tourism growth and its statement for international competitiveness. This paper proposes a tourism research agenda for Portugal in order to guide future developments towards the industry’s needs.
- Adding value to bank branch performance evaluation using cognitive maps and MCDA: a case studyPublication . Ferreira, F. A. F.; Santos, Sérgio Pereira dos; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Bank branch performance evaluation is a difficult endeavour. Some of the main reasons for this difficulty are the complexity inherent in the variety of aspects considered in the evaluation, and the multiple and conflicting interests of the different stakeholders involved. In this paper, we show how cognitive mapping and measuring attractiveness by a categorical-based evaluation technique can be used to support the evaluation of bank branches through the development of multidimensional performance evaluation systems, and to deal explicitly with the trade-offs between the different dimensions of performance and interests of different stakeholders. A case study is discussed where these techniques are used in a constructive way, making the learning activity easier and introducing transparency in the decision-making process. The strengths and weaknesses of the integrated use of these two operational research techniques in this context are also discussed.
- A previsão com modelos de espaço de estado: Uma aplicação à economia portuguesaPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Guerreiro, Raúl Filipe C.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.A previsão com modelos de espaço de estado: modelo estrutural, modelo espaço estados (MEE), previsão com filtro de Kalman.
- Convergir para um novo paradigma de ensinoPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Os sistemas de ensino estão actualmente expostos a um enorme desafio associado à prossecução do estabelecimento de uma àrea de ensino superior europeu comum até 2010.
- Estudos I - Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do AlgarvePublication . Covas, António; Cândido, Carlos; TRIGUEIROS, DUARTE; Rebelo, Efigénio; Silva, João Albino; Guerreiro, J.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; Nunes, RuiPublicação da produção científica da Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Algarve.Os artigos que constam desta edição abrangem muitos temas com actualidade nos campos científico e da política económica e empresarial.
- Sistemas e tecnologias de informação no sector turísticoPublication . Ramos, Célia M. Q.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; Perna, FernandoO desenvolvimento tecnológico tem sido um dos principais motores para as transformações sentidas pelo sector económico relacionado com a actividade turística. No contexto das novas Tecnologias de Informação e de Comunicação (TIC), a Internet revolucionou a forma de actuação e de posicionamento dos intervenientes dentro do canal da distribuição turística. A distribuição turística viu surgir a obrigatoriedade de se aliar a sistemas que possibilitassem o tratamento, armazenamento, a gestão e a comunicação de informação turística como garantia de sobrevivência das organizações e aumento da competitividade dos destinos. O presente artigo pretende mostrar que os sistemas e as tecnologias de informação e de comunicação têm um papel essencial para as organizações turísticas. Para além da comunicação, a Internet permitiu o desenvolvimento de sistemas de informação, específicos para a criação de pacotes dinâmicos (Dynamic Packaging), os quais permitem aos destinos definirem o seu posicionamento numa sociedade onde todos os dias emergem novas funcionalidades tecnológicas e novos conceitos.
- Tourism growth and regional resilience: the "beach disease' and the consequences of the global crisis of 2007Publication . Romão, João; Guerreiro, J.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.As a consequence of the international financial crisis in 2007, the region of Algarve, where tourism plays an important economic and social role, suffered a decrease in tourism demand, while unemployment increased sharply. Although tourism activities registered a quick recovery, unemployment levels continued to grow. This article examines the impacts of tourism activities on the sectorial structure of the regional economy, using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The results reveal that tourism growth did not automatically create the expected positive impacts on the economic performance of the other sectors, as was expressed by the objectives defined in the regional development strategies over the last two decades. The positive impacts of tourism were concentrated in the production of non-tradable goods and the construction sector, leading to a significant reduction of the weight of the tradable sector within the regional economy, similar to a process of deindustrialization described as the Dutch disease'. The decline of construction activities after 2007 has led to a significant increase of regional unemployment, although tourism growth has returned to pre-crisis' levels, revealing the lack of regional resilience.
- The world tourism exports cyclePublication . Gouveia, Pedro; Guerreiro, Raúl Filipe C.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Considering that tourism is an important industry on a global scale, this study analyses and compares the deviations cycles from the long-term trend of tourism exports for all regions of the world with the cycle of the European Union with 27 member states (EU27). In this context, the approach followed allows us to analyse and determine the synchronization between tourism exports cycles of various regions of interest. In parallel, lagged concordance indices of cycles are identifi ed which can play an important role in forecasting and used as an important tool to support decision making of public and private entities associated to the tourism industry. In methodological terms, this paper is based on work originally developed in the literature by Gouveia and Rodrigues (2005), who analyse the tourism demand cycle following the method proposed by Harding and Pagan (2001) and obtain evidence of a strong degree of synchronization between the economic and the tourism cycle. This paper is innovative in the approach used to investigate the relationship between tourism exports cycles and in the identifi cation of the trend and cycle components through the application of state-space methods and the Kalman fi lter (Kalman 1960, Kalman and Bucy, 1961).
- Conditional models in performance evaluation of investment funds in Portugal: selectivity and market timing (daily vs. monthly analysis)Publication . Afonso, Osvaldo; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; Viegas, CristinaInvestment funds’ performance evaluation is one area of finance which has observed many developments over the past 40 years. In this field, traditional techniques of evaluation have not made use of models of conditional returns. These approaches do not allow for the temporal dependence of expected returns. To overcome this problem, Ferson and Schadt (1996) developed a new conditional performance evaluation approach. The present work applies the methodology of Ferson and Schadt (1996) on a sample of 32 Portuguese investment funds observed from 31 December 2005 to 31 December 2013, with the objective to evaluate the performance of these investment funds, in the terms of selectivity and market timing, based on daily and monthly data.
- Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for PortugalPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.We propose the use of a tool recently introduced by Gayer (2010), known as the "economic climate tracer", to analyze and monitor the cyclical evolution of tourism source markets to Portugal. Considering the period 1987-2015, we evaluate how tourism to Portugal has been affected by economic cycles. This tool is useful as it clearly illustrates the evolutionary patterns of different markets, and allows us to identify close relationships with economic fluctuations. We found that German tourism plays a leading role, since its movements are followed with delays by tourism flows from other countries, and exhibits higher resilience to shocks. Also, domestic and Spanish tourism have both displayed less irregular behaviors than tourism from other source markets. On the contrary, tourism from the Netherlands and the UK, have displayed irregular patterns, which demonstrates the urgency to diversify tourism source markets to reduce the country's vulnerability to external shocks and economic cycles. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.