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- On the effects of highway investment on the regional concentration of economic activity in the USAPublication . Pereira, Alfredo; Andraz, Jorge MiguelThe empirical results in this note are based on state-level VAR estimates using private output, employment, and investment, as well as different measures of highway investment to capture, for each state, both the direct effects of highway investment in the state itself and spillover effects of highway investment in other states. Empirical results suggest that the largest states tend to also be the biggest beneficiaries of highway investments which means that highway investment has not only contributed to regional concentration of economic activity but has done so in many of the largest states thereby contributing to regional asymmetries in the country
- Análise custo-benefício ex-post dos investimentos em scuts: o caso da scut do interior nortePublication . Pereira, Alfredo; Pereira, Rui; Andraz, Jorge MiguelA análise custo-benefício ex-post do projecto de investimento na SCUT Interior Norte aponta no sentido de este projecto demonstrar um valor financeiro e microeconómico muito positivo. Partindo da comparação de resultados entre cenários com e sem a existência da SCUT mostra-se que a existência desta SCUT permite ganhos consideráveis em termos de redução dos tempos de viagem, de sinistralidade, e de impactes ambientais.
- The tourism position in the Algarve economic structure: a regional analysisPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Silva, João Albino; Viegas, CarlosThis paper analyses the evolution of the Algarve’s economic structure and the position achieved by tourist activity in the region between 1995 and 2003 to evaluate the region’s degree of specialization on tourism. The methodology applies the regional analysis tools, in particular the location and specialization indicators and the analysis is developed both at the inter-regional and intra-regional levels. The results suggest that the Algarve is the second most specialized region in the country, together with the region of Madeira, and behind the region of Azores. In the basis of this phenomenon are the sector of hotels and restaurants, which is directly connected to tourism, and other sectors such as fishery, trade, transports, communications and other services, which are indirectly connected to tourism. Furthermore, the focuses of concentration are limited to the coast line, with particular relevance in the areas of Albufeira, Vila do Bispo and Portimão.
- Análise custo-benefício ex-post dos investimentos em scuts: o caso da scut da Beira InteriorPublication . Pereira, Alfredo; Pereira, Rui; Andraz, Jorge MiguelA análise custo-benefício ex-post do projecto de investimento na SCUT da Beira Interior aponta no sentido de este projecto demonstrar um valor financeiro e microeconómico muito positivo. Partindo da comparação de resultados entre cenários com e sem a existência da SCUT mostra-se que a existência desta SCUT permite ganhos consideráveis em termos de redução dos tempos de viagem, de sinistralidade, e de impactes ambientais.
- Persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indicesPublication . Andraz, Jorge; Guerreiro, Raúl Filipe C.; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.Volatility persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indices and of some of its components is analyzed, and tests of whether persistence has changed over time are performed. Given the typical leading indicator behavior of financial variables, understanding and characterizing the properties of these indices may help shed light on the behavior of the tourism sector and of its resilience to crises. For the purpose of analysis, our sample is split into three subsamples according to the World tourism cycle: (i) from January 1996 to December 2002; (ii) from January 2003 to August 2007; and (iii) from September 2007 to July 2014. Results suggest the existence of long-memory dynamics driving series volatility, and that shocks to volatility tend to be more persistent during periods of turmoil and affect regions differently.
- Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for PortugalPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.We propose the use of a tool recently introduced by Gayer (2010), known as the "economic climate tracer", to analyze and monitor the cyclical evolution of tourism source markets to Portugal. Considering the period 1987-2015, we evaluate how tourism to Portugal has been affected by economic cycles. This tool is useful as it clearly illustrates the evolutionary patterns of different markets, and allows us to identify close relationships with economic fluctuations. We found that German tourism plays a leading role, since its movements are followed with delays by tourism flows from other countries, and exhibits higher resilience to shocks. Also, domestic and Spanish tourism have both displayed less irregular behaviors than tourism from other source markets. On the contrary, tourism from the Netherlands and the UK, have displayed irregular patterns, which demonstrates the urgency to diversify tourism source markets to reduce the country's vulnerability to external shocks and economic cycles. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- The ‘great Moderation’ in OECD countries: Its deepness and implications with business cyclesPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Norte, NéliaThis paper presents an empirical analysis of the "Great Moderation" phenomenon characterized by a decrease of volatility in GDP real growth rates, using quarterly data for the OECD member states over the period 1960-2010. This paper expands the existing literature on methodological and empirical grounds. We use a GARCH modeling approach with endogenously determined structural breaks in both the trend and volatility, which provides more accurate way to model output volatility. The objectives of this paper are threefold: (1) to assess the occurrence of "the Great Moderation" and identify the timings of volatility changes; (2) to analyse the time varying nature of volatility, in particular whether it has been subject to gradual shifts over time or one-off major shifts, as well as the degree of symmetry/asymmetry across different phases of the business cycle; (3) to analyse the dynamic pattern of (a)symmetric behaviour over the sample period. The results reveal a progressive "moderation" in all countries, characterized by regime changes in both growth rates and volatility and suggest that countries differ on the relative magnitude of the impacts of negative shocks on volatility, relatively to those of positive shocks of similar magnitude over the sample period. The disaggregated analysis over subperiods reveals an increasing pattern of these asymmetries, as well as huge differences among the countries. While this suggests a higher vulnerability to negative exogenous shocks in some OECD economies, although with different levels, some economies seem to have developed higher levels of immunity to external shocks by reaching balanced effects from positive and negative shocks.
- On the relationship between soveregn bonds and credit default swaps in PortugalPublication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Viegas, Cristina; Norte, NéliaThis paper aims at identifying the relationship between government bonds spreads and credit default swaps premiums in Portugal for long and short maturities, covering a period that includes the beginning of the 2008 international financial crisis. We estimate Autoregressive Distributed Lag error correction models for the sub periods prior and after the moment crisis started. Results reveal the absence of cointegration over the sample period, with important differences prior and after 2010 in both maturities. There is no evidence of long-run relationship between both markets in both maturities, as the 2007 crisis has interrupted the long run relationship that was observed in the 5-year segment, and enacted a long run relationship in shorter maturities. The credit default swaps market performs a leading role on price determination in short-and long-run before the crisis but the role of the bond spread as a credit risk information has increased during the crisis.
- What causes economic growth in Portugal: exports or inward FDI?Publication . Andraz, Jorge Miguel; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.The purpose of this paper is to analyse possible casual relationships between exports, inward foreign investment and economic growth in Portugal and identify their direction. The paper uses the three stage procedure based on unit root, cointegration and causalty tests applied to annual data from 1977 to 2004.
- On the economic effects of public infrastructe investment: a survey of the international evidencePublication . Pereira, Alfredo; Andraz, Jorge MiguelThis paper provides a survey of the significant literature on the effects of public infrastructure investment on economic performance and therefore constitutes a comprehensive reference for academic researchers and policy makers alike. It presents a comprehensive discussion of the empirical research regarding the impact of public infrastructure investment on economic performance in terms of both the methodological approaches followed and respective conclusions. It includes an integrated discussion of the methodological developments that successively have led to the estimation of production functions, cost and profit functions and, more recently, vector autoregressive models. Finally, it identifies some important areas for future research and highlights the natural convergence of this literature with the macroeconomic literature on the effects of fiscal policies.