Percorrer por autor "Hugman, Rui"
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- Combined assessment of climate change and socio-economic development as drivers of freshwater availability in the south of PortugalPublication . Stigter, Tibor Y.; Varanda, Marta; Bento, Sofia; Nunes, Joao Pedro; Hugman, RuiA combined assessment of the potential impacts from climate change (CC) and socio-economic development (SED) on water resources is presented for the most important aquifer in the south of Portugal. The goal is to understand how CC and SED affect the currently large pressures from water consuming and contaminating activities, predominantly agriculture. Short-term (2020-2050) and long-term (2070-2100) CC scenarios were developed and used to build aquifer recharge and crop water demand scenarios, using different methods to account for uncertainty. SED scenarios were developed using bottom-up and top-down methods, and discussed at workshops with farmers and institutional stakeholders in the water sector. Groundwater use was quantified for each scenario. Together with the recharge scenarios, these were run through a calibrated groundwater flow model, to study their individual and joint impacts on groundwater levels and discharge rates into a coastal estuary. Recharge scenarios show clear negative long-term trends and short-term increase in temporal variability of recharge, though short-term model uncertainties are higher. SED scenario 1 (SED1), predicting intensification and decline of small farms, considered the most likely by all workshop participants, shows a large drop in agricultural area and water demand. SED2, a most desired scenario by farmers, foresees growth and modernization of agriculture, but proves unsustainable in combination with predicted CC without efficient adaptation measures. The results thus reveal that CC in the region will dynamically interact with economic factors, and going one step beyond, CC could be directly integrated as a constraint in the development of SED scenarios. Exercises involving the integration of CC and SED regionally based scenarios, constructed in both bottom-up and top- down fashion and discussed in participatory contexts are still rarely used for adaptation, and specifically adaptation of agriculture to water scarcity. The joint analysis of CC and SED revealed challenging, as it involved the use of different methods across the border between natural and social sciences. In our view this method contributes in an encouraging manner to a more holistic and transdisciplinary water management, by allowing a more plausible identification of what (and if) adaptation measures are needed.
- Decision-support groundwater modelling of managed aquifer recharge in a Coastal Aquifer in South PortugalPublication . Standen, Kathleen; Hugman, Rui; Monteiro, José PauloThe Vale do Lobo sector of the Campina de Faro aquifer system in the Algarve (Portugal) is at risk of seawater intrusion. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is being considered to avoid groundwater quality deterioration. Numerical modelling was undertaken to assess the feasibility of several proposed MAR schemes. Although some data is available, many aspects of system behaviour are not well understood or measured. We demonstrate the use of a structurally simple but parametrically complex model for decision-making in a coastal aquifer. Modelling was designed to facilitate uncertainty reduction through data assimilation where possible, whilst acknowledging that which remains unknown elsewhere. Open-source software was employed throughout, and the workflow was scripted (reproducible). The model was designed to be fast-running (rapid) and numerically stable to facilitate data assimilation and represent prediction-pertinent uncertainty (robust). Omitting physical processes and structural detail constrains the type of predictions that can be made. This was addressed by assessing the effectiveness of MAR at maintaining the fresh-seawater interface (approximated using the Ghyben-Herzberg relationship) below specified thresholds. This enabled the use of a constant-density model, rather than attempting to explicitly simulating the interaction between fresh and seawater. Although predictive uncertainty may be increased, it is outweighed by the ability to extract information from the available data. Results show that, due to the limit on water availability and the continued groundwater extraction at unsustainable rates, only limited improvements in hydraulic heads can be achieved with the proposed MAR schemes. This is an important finding for decision-makers, as it indicates that a considerable reduction in extraction in addition to MAR will be required. Our approach identified these limitations, avoiding the need for further data collection, and demonstrating the value of purposeful model design.
- Integration of managed aquifer recharge into the water supply system in the Algarve region, PortugalPublication . Standen, Kathleen; Costa, Luís; Hugman, Rui; Monteiro, José PauloThe Algarve region of Portugal is experiencing severe water scarcity with existing water supplies insufficient to meet demand, with limited resilience to drought. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can provide intermediate storage and bridge the gap between water availability and demand, with success depending on the water available and the aquifer capacity to accept and store the water. We present the results of a regional study quantifying both these aspects to estimate the regional potential for MAR. Our results demonstrate that MAR can comprise 10% of the total water demand of the region (24 Mm3/yr) using water that is not otherwise captured, with quality that meets the requirements of the Groundwater Directive. MAR can replace 15 Mm3/yr of surface water used in the public irrigation perimeters and 9 Mm3/yr can be used to develop and maintain a strategic groundwater resource in the aquifers of the Central Algarve. Although climate change is predicted to result in an 8–13% decrease in MAR recharge, this can be addressed by incrementally increasing MAR design capacity. MAR has similar water resource benefits to the planned major infrastructure projects (desalination and River Guadiana abstraction), with reduced environmental impacts and lower costs than almost all feasible alternatives. We conclude that MAR is an important measure to increase water supply security and drought resilience in the Algarve region.
- Integration of managed aquifer recharge into the water supply system in the Algarve region, PortugalPublication . Standen, Kathleen; Costa, Luís; Hugman, Rui; Monteiro, José PauloThe Algarve region of Portugal is experiencing severe water scarcity with existing water supplies insufficient to meet demand, with limited resilience to drought. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can provide intermediate storage and bridge the gap between water availability and demand, with success depending on the water available and the aquifer capacity to accept and store the water. We present the results of a regional study quantifying both these aspects to estimate the regional potential for MAR. Our results demonstrate that MAR can comprise 10% of the total water demand of the region (24 Mm(3)/yr) using water that is not otherwise captured, with quality that meets the requirements of the Groundwater Directive. MAR can replace 15 Mm(3)/yr of surface water used in the public irrigation perimeters and 9 Mm(3)/yr can be used to develop and maintain a strategic groundwater resource in the aquifers of the Central Algarve. Although climate change is predicted to result in an 8-13% decrease in MAR recharge, this can be addressed by incrementally increasing MAR design capacity. MAR has similar water resource benefits to the planned major infrastructure projects (desalination and River Guadiana abstraction), with reduced environmental impacts and lower costs than almost all feasible alternatives. We conclude that MAR is an important measure to increase water supply security and drought resilience in the Algarve region.
- Modeling nitrate-contaminated groundwater discharge to the Ria Formosa Coastal Lagoon (Algarve, Portugal)Publication . Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José PauloA numerical flow and transport model is developed to assess groundwater discharge and nutrient transport to the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon in southern Portugal. A total N load of 350 ton/year is estimated for the considered area, of which agriculture accounts for 73% of total N load, and domestic effluent and atmospheric deposition for the remaining 9% and 18% respectively. Model results suggest that nutrient recycling has led to the high concentrations observed in the Campina de Faro (M12) aquifer, but is still insufficient to account for observed values at the coastline. Furthermore results suggest that even for the best case mitigation scenario, good quality status will not be achieved by 2027, as mandated by the EU Water Framework Directive.
- Modelling contributions of the local and regional groundwater flow of managed aquifer recharge activities at Querença-Silves Aquifer SystemPublication . Costa, Luís; Monteiro, José Paulo; Oliveira, Manuel; Mota, Rogério; Lobo-Ferreira, João Paulo; Carvalho, José Martins de; Carvalho, Tiago Martins de; Agostinho, Rui; Hugman, RuiThe Querença-Silves (QS) aquifer system is one of the most important natural groundwater reservoirs in the Algarve region of southern Portugal. With a surface area of 324 km2, this karst aquifer system is the main source of supply for irrigation as well as an important source of water for the urban supply.
- Numerical approaches to simulate groundwater flow and transport in coastal aquifers - from regional scale management to submarine groundwater dischargePublication . Hugman, Rui; Monteiro, José Paulo; Stigter, TiborNumerical models of varying scales and degree of complexity are developed to study issues, directly or indirectly, related to coastal aquifer management in the Algarve (south of Portugal).
- Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve, Portugal)Publication . Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Costa, Luis; Monteiro, José PauloPredicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current waterresource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A densitycoupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and interannual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater–saltwater interfaces’ comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 106 m3 yr−1.
- Predicting the impact of management and climate scenarios on groundwater nitrate concentration trends in southern PortugalPublication . Costa, Luis; Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor Y.; Monteiro, José PauloThe dynamics related to evolution of nitrate-contaminated groundwater are analyzed with focus on the impact of intrinsic aquifer properties, agricultural activities and restoration measures at Campina de Faro aquifer (M12), southern Portugal. Agricultural practices in the region developed in the 1970s and resulted in high abstraction rates, nitrate contamination and salinization. Despite the implementation of the European Union (EU) Nitrates Directive since 1997, nitrate levels still show increasing trends at some locations, constituting a threat to the chemical status of M12 and consequent nitrate discharge to Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Simultaneously, groundwater levels are not dropping consistently, despite apparent overexploitation. A groundwater flow and mass transport model is developed for M12 to assess the evolution of nitrate under different scenarios. Model results reveal that M12 has a hydraulic connection with northernmost aquifers, a process not properly assessed so far. Results further show that nitrate contamination in the upper Plio-Quaternary layer of M12 is extremely persistent and mostly linked to unbalanced fertilizer application practices and irrigation return flows. The response of M12 to implementation of good agricultural practices in compliance with EU policies is slow, indicating that good qualitative status would be impossible to reach by the required EU deadlines. Integration of climate change scenarios into the transport model reveals that despite the implementation of restoration measures, there could be a retardation of the nitrate levels' decrease in the upper aquifer as a result of enhanced evapoconcentration caused by lower recharge, higher water demands and incomplete mixing within the aquifer.
- Quantifying and modelling the contribution of streams that recharge the Querenca-Silves aquifer in the south of PortugalPublication . Salvador, Nuria; Monteiro, José Paulo; Hugman, Rui; Stigter, Tibor; Reis, E.The water balance of the mesocenozoic aquifers of the Algarve, in the south of Portugal has traditionally been estimated considering only direct ("autogenic") recharge from rainfall occurring in the area of the aquifers. Little importance has been attributed to so-called allogenic recharge, originating from streambed infiltration from runoff generated outside the aquifers, particularly in the Palaeozoic rocks to the north where runoff is high. The Querenca-Silves (QS) aquifer is the most important aquifer of the region both for irrigation and public water supply. Several important and sensitive surface/groundwater ecotones and associated groundwater dependent ecosystems exist at the springs of the natural discharge areas of the aquifer system. A numerical flow model has been in constant development over the last few years and currently is able to reproduce the aquifer's responses to estimated direct recharge and abstraction for the years 2001-2010. However, recharge calculations for the model do not take into account allogenic recharge infiltration along influent reaches of streams. The quantification of allogenic recharge may further improve the assessment of water availability and exploitation risks. In this paper an attempt is made to quantify the average annual contribution of allogenic recharge to the QS aquifer, based on monitoring data of the principal water courses that cross the aquifer system. Significant uncertainties related to surface runoff generated within the aquifer area, as well as areal recharge were identified and the consequences for the optimization of spatial distribution of transmissivity in the groundwater flow model are also addressed.