FEC2-Artigos (em revistas ou actas indexadas)
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- Water demand of urban portuguese households by population trajectory and regionPublication . Barreira, Ana Paula; Andraz, JorgePortugal is one of the European countries most vulnerable to water shortages driven by climate change. This study explores the factors influencing household water demand across Portuguese municipalities with urban centres, emphasizing two oftenoverlooked elements: population trends (growth or decline) and regional location. Another innovation of the study is the inclusion of tourists in the estimation of household water demand. Using panel data for 2011 and 2021, models were developed for four population trajectories and three geographic regions. Results reveal that water consumption drivers vary depending on demographic and regional context. The lowest tariff block (5 m³) has little effect on consumption, while the highest block (15 m³) tends to reduce usage in most models. Municipalities with growing populations in the North tend to consume less water, while growing municipalities in the South – in a touristic region – exhibit higher levels of water consumption. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring water management policies to local demographic and regional characteristics, offering valuable insights for other areas facing similar pressures from climate and population change. Effective policies should combine pricing strategies with initiatives promoting efficient appliances and public education.
- The effect of corporate strategic change on auditors’ predictions of going-concern opinions: the influence of crisis caused by the pandemicPublication . Arianpoor, Arash; Ramezanpour, Mohammad; ABDOLLAHI, AHMADThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of corporate strategic change (CSC) on the probability of an auditor’s going-concern opinion (GCOP) and the moderating role of COVID-19 on companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach – Information about 193 companies from 2014 to 2023 is examined. Considering that the dependent variable was binary, binary logistic regression analysis was used. Findings – The results of this study showed that CSC decreased the probability of a GCOP. Moreover, COVID-19 strengthened the adverse effects of CSC on the probability of an auditor’s opinion of going concern. The results also confirmed that CSC is exogenous in econometric models, indicating no omitted-variable bias or reverse causality. Originality/value – Audit failures in the past few years have highlighted a severe lack of early warning mechanisms and GCOPs. Although the existing models offer no recourse, the International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board’s (IAASB) direction in revising the International Standard on Auditing 570 shows that strategic cues can be powerful managerial signals, moving audit frameworks into managerial behavior. Moreover, signals under crisis and external shocks (e.g. COVID-19) can amplify the interpretive power of strategic behavior. This study empirically validates IAASB’s direction of IAASB. Through incorporating CSC and COVID-19, audit models can become more sensitive to proactive turnaround behaviors, thereby reducing systemic audit blind spots.
- Is connectedness between commodity volatility indices and G-7 stock market returns the same across return quantiles?Publication . Hanif, Waqas; El Khoury, Rim; Hadhri, SindaThis study examines the connectedness and spillover effects among G7 stock markets, oil and gold volatilities from January 1, 2017, to June 16, 2022. By employing an in-quantile spillover approach, the study contributes to the existing literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of the linkages between these markets. The findings reveal that spillover effects are highly dynamic and vary significantly across different quantiles of the return distribution. During periods of market turbulence—such as the Covid-19 pandemic, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts—spillover intensity increases, indicating heightened market interdependence. The Japanese stock market and Gold volatility index (GVX) consistently act as net recipients of shocks, whereas the stock markets of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the USA serve as net transmitters. While long-term diversification opportunities appear limited, gold and oil exhibit effective hedging properties for short-term investors across various market conditions. From a policy perspective, these findings underscore the importance of monitoring market interdependencies, particularly during crisis periods. Policymakers should implement coordinated strategies to mitigate systemic risks in financial markets, especially in times of heightened uncertainty. Investors should consider short-term hedging strategies using gold and oil to minimize risk exposure during market downturns. Furthermore, financial regulators in G7 countries should enhance surveillance mechanisms to preempt excessive spillovers that may threaten financial stability.
- Labour intensity and systematic riskPublication . Francisco, Paulo MoraisWe examine whether firms labour intensity raises systematic risk. Drawing on 12,250 listed, non financial companies from 93 countries, we analyse CAPM betas over five , three and two year windows and separately evaluate their upside (β+) and downside (β− ) components. OLS results show that a one standard deviation increase in labour intensity lifts the five year beta by 0.08 and loads disproportionately on downside risk. Instrumenting labour intensity in a 2SLS framework magnifies the effect, confirming a causal link. Overall, our evidence shows that labour intensive firms worldwide carry higher betas because fixed wage bills magnify operating leverage; the extra risk is most visible when markets decline, making a company’s workforce composition a key driver of its equity risk.
- Smart specialisation evaluation with real project data: a general equilibrium model in Portugal’s Centro regionPublication . Szabó, Norbert; Polónyi-Andor, Krisztina; Sebestyén, Tamás; Pinto, HugoAs the first smart specialisation planning period (2014–2020) ended, monitoring and evaluation became crucial. Analysing the successes and failures of smart specialisation strategy (S3) through a good monitoring and evaluation system contributes to the evidence base on which an efficient redesign and improvement of S3 can be performed. In this paper, we apply an extended version of the geographic, macro and regional (GMR)-Europe economic impact model to provide a real-life evaluation of the implementation of S3 in Centro region using cohesion policy fund data between 2014 and 2023. Simulations reveal that policy instruments and policy mixes of priorities differ in efficiency and identify where improvements are desired.
- Waves of innovation: the role of sustainability in driving impact in the blue economy – a PLS-SEM approachPublication . Elston, Jennifer Nicole; Pinto, Hugo; Nogueira, CarlaThe Blue Economy, with its emphasis on ocean-based industries, is critical for achieving sustainable development. This study investigates the intricate relationship between sustainability, innovation, and their economic, environmental, and social impacts within Portugal’s Blue Economy. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to test the hypothesized relationships between sustainability, innovation, and triple bottom line (TBL) outcomes based on survey data from firms operating in the sector. The findings confirm that innovation acts as both a direct outcome of sustainability efforts and a mechanism for mediating its impacts on economic and environmental performance. However, no significant direct or mediating effects were observed for social outcomes, highlighting a persistent gap in this dimension that requires further research. The study contributes to both theory and practice by highlighting the strategic integration of sustainability into organizational innovation processes and its role in enhancing multidimensional performance. By identifying critical pathways and barriers, this study offers valuable guidance for policymakers and industry leaders striving to enhance the long-term sustainability of the Blue Economy.
- Building resilience in tourism firms: evidence from COVID-19Publication . Jesus, Carina; Serra Coelho, Luís Miguel; Ramos, CeliaMultiple factors determine tourism companies' capacity to resist and overcome disruptive events, such as pandemics or wars. This paper investigates this issue using a sensitivity index and finds that reductions in human capital, bigger size, and higher past profitability diminish resilience, while higher leverage and capital intensity strengthen it. Our findings further suggest that these effects differ across countries and underscore the negative consequences of Eurozone membership. This paper broadens our understanding of how companies can improve their resilience, providing valuable insights for future preparedness strategies for tourism firms and policymakers.
- The spillover effect of ADR activity on stock price synchronicity: empirical evidence in emerging marketsPublication . Viana Junior, Dante Baiardo C.This study investigates the intra-industry spillover effect of American Depositary Receipt (ADR) issuance on the stock price synchronicity of non-ADR firms from emerging markets. Based on a sample of listed firms from six Latin American countries, although I find some evidence of a decrease in stock price synchronicity among ADR issuers in post-ADR issuance periods, the main findings suggest that non-ADR firms from industries with ADR issuance activity have higher levels of synchronicity on average than non-ADR firms from industries with no ADR issuance activity. These cross-country average results are robust to different regression methods and alternative subsamples employed to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Even though this trend is confirmed for the majority of the Latin American countries under review, individual-country analyses indicate a synchronicity-decreasing effect of ADR industry activity, particularly for non-ADR Chilean firms. Complementary, more in-depth empirical analyses suggest that country-level factors and ADR firm characteristics play an essential role in this issue. My main findings document that the overall positive spillover effect of ADR activity on the stock price synchronicity of non-ADR firms in Latin America is non-monotonic. These exploratory findings contribute to the active debate regarding the impact of ADR issuance on local economies, particularly with respect to the informativeness of financial reporting available in the capital markets.
- Tri-Collab: a machine learning project to leverage innovation ecosystems in PortugalPublication . Marujo, Ângelo; Afonso, Bruno; Martins, Inês; Pires, Lisandro; Fernandes, Silvia C. Pinto de BritoThis project consists of a digital platform named Tri-Collab, where investors, entrepreneurs, and other agents (mainly talents) can cooperate on their ideas and eventually co-create. It is a digital means for this triad of actors (among other potential ones) to better adjust their requirements. It includes an app that easily communicates with a database of projects, innovation agents and their profiles, and the originality lies in the matching algorithm. Thus, co-creation can have better support through this assertive interconnection of players and their resources. This work also highlights the usefulness of the Canvas Business Model in structuring the idea and its dashboard, allowing a comprehensive view of channels, challenges and gains. Also, the potential of machine learning in improving matchmaking platforms is discussed, especially when technological advancements allow for forecasts and match people at scale.
- The relationship between time pressure, ethical culture and audit qualityPublication . Samagaio, Antonio; Francisco, Paulo Morais; Felício, Teresa; Matos, Pedro VergaPurposeThis study aims to analyze the effect of time pressure and the ethical culture of audit firms on audit quality expressed through professional skepticism and reduced audit quality practices (RAQP). Furthermore, the study explores the moderating role of ethical culture in the relationship between the remaining variables.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a sample of 96 auditors, whose data were collected through an electronic questionnaire. The results were derived from the partial least squares-structural equation modeling method and necessity condition analysis.FindingsThe results show that the propensity to incur RAQP increases when auditors are subject to a context of greater time pressure and weak ethical culture. Moreover, ethical culture is positively associated with the auditors' skepticism trait. The study shows that ethical culture is a necessary condition for professional skepticism, and that time pressure is also a factor that must be present for RAQP to occur. We found no evidence that the skeptical trait is influenced by time pressure and that ethical culture moderates the relationship between time pressure and audit quality.Originality/valueThis study reinforces the empirical evidence that the characteristics of audit firms are relevant in improving audit quality. By combining the logics of sufficiency and necessity, it is possible to better understand the causal relationship between audit quality, time pressure and ethical culture, advancing the theorization of the phenomena observed in auditing firms. The findings of this work are equally valuable for regulators and auditing firms to take initiatives to improve their performance in order to reinforce their social function.