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- CRAF Phase 1, a framework to identify coastal hotspots to storm impactsPublication . Ferreira, Óscar; Viavattene, Christophe; Jimenez, Jose; Bole, Annelies; Plomaritis, Theocharis; Costas, Susana; Smets, StevenLow-frequency high-impact storms can cause flood and erosion over large coastal areas, which in turn can lead to a significant risk to coastal occupation, producing devastation and immobilising cities and even countries. It is therefore paramount to evaluate risk along the coast at a regional scale through the identification of storm impact hotspots. The Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Phase 1 (CRAF1) is a screening process based on a coastal-index approach that assesses the potential exposure of every kilometre along the coast to previously identified hazards. CRAF1 integrates both hazard (e.g. overwash, erosion) and exposure indicators to create a final Coastal Index (CI). The application of CRAF1 at two contrasting case studies (Ria Formosa, Portugal and the Belgian coast), validated against existing information, demonstrates the utility and reliability of this framework on the identification of hotspots. CRAF1 represents a powerful and useful instrument for coastal managers and/or end-users to identify and rank potential hotspot areas in order to define priorities and support disaster reduction plans.
- Field measurements and hydrodynamic modelling to evaluate the importance of factors controlling overwashPublication . Matias, Ana; Carrasco, A.R.; Loureiro, Carlos; Masselink, Gerd; Andriolo, Umberto; McCall, Robert; Ferreira, Oscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis; Pacheco, André; Guerreiro, MarthaOverwash hydrodynamic datasets are mixed in quality and scope, being difficult to obtain due to fieldwork experimental limitations. Nevertheless, these measurements are crucial to develop reliable models to predict overwash. Aiming to overcome such limitations, this work presents accurate fieldwork data on overwash hydrodynamics, further exploring it to model overwash on a low-lying barrier island. Fieldwork was undertaken on Barreta Island (Portugal) in December 2013, during neap tides and under energetic conditions, with significant wave height reaching 2.6 m. During approximately 4 h, more than 120 shallow overwash events were measured with a video-camera, a pressure transducer and a current-meter. This high-frequency fieldwork dataset includes runup, overwash number, depth and velocity. Fieldwork data along with information from literature were used to implement XBeach model in non-hydrostatic mode (wave-resolving). The baseline model was tested for six verification cases; and the model was able to predict overwash in five. Based in performance metrics and the verification cases, it was considered that the Barreta baseline overwash model is a reliable tool for the prediction of overwash hydrodynamics. The baseline model was then forced to simulate overwash under different hydrodynamic conditions (waves and lagoon water level) and morpho-sedimentary settings (nearshore topography and beach grain-size), within the characteristic range of values for the study area. According to the results, the order of importance of factors controlling overwash predictability in the study area are: 1st) wave height (more than wave period) can promote overwash 3–4 times more intense than the one recorded during fieldwork; 2nd) nearshore bathymetry, particularly shallow submerged bars, can promote an average decrease of about 30% in overwash; 3rd) grain-size, finer sediment produced an 11% increase in overwash due to reduced infiltration; and 4th) lagoon water level, only negligible differences were evidenced by changes in the lagoon level. This implies that for model predictions to be reliable, accurate wave forecasts are necessary and topo-bathymetric configuration needs to be monitored frequently.
- Towards assessing the resilience of complex coastal systems: examples from Ria Formosa (South Portugal)Publication . Kombiadou, Katerina; Matias, Ana; Carrasco, Rita; Ferreira, Oscar; Costas, S.; Vieira, G.The present paper contributes to assessing the resilience of a complex barrier island environment, namely of the Ria Formosa multi-inlet system in southern Portugal. The long-term morphologic evolution of four study areas during the last 60 years (1947 to 2014) is analysed based on aerial photographs, including the environments of oceanic and backbarrier beaches, dunes and salt marshes. The results show that each study area responded to external drivers (inlet stabilisation works, storms, etc.) differently, evolving in distinct patterns during the study period. All four study areas appear resilient to external pressures and/or forcing conditions, since they are either transforming (Barreta and Culatra islands), or adapting (Cabanas island and Cacela peninsula) or remaining stable at a near-equilibrium state (Tavira island). Based on the analysis of the multi-decadal evolution of the sites, four resilient barrier states are identified, related to the maturity and growth of the barrier. In the next stages, the research will focus on the relation between medium to short-term changes, aiming at understanding the response and feedbacks of the environments to specific drivers of change and relating them to resilience indicators.
- Distribution of living benthic foraminifera on the northern Gulf of Cadiz continental shelfPublication . Mendes, Isabel; Dias, J. A.; Schonfeld, J.; Ferreira, ÓscarLiving (stained) benthic foraminiferal faunas were analyzed in 51 surficial sediment samples taken from the northern Gulf of Cadiz continental shelf between the mouths of the Guadiana and Guadalquivir rivers. The distribution and abundance of 26 species with relative abundance .5% were related to water depth, sediment type, river discharge, water temperature, salinity, turbidity, and primary productivity. Hierarchical classification using R- and Q-mode cluster analyses, and individual distributions, allowed these taxa to be categorized into four general groups. Group 1 is represented by Bolivina ordinaria and Hopkinsina atlantica. These species are linked to river discharge, and are associated with muddy sediments. They are considered the most opportunistic species in the assemblage, and are associated with the limits of productivity. Group 2, contains Ammonia beccarii, Eggerelloides scaber, Elphidium gerthi, Quinqueloculina laevigata, and Q. stelligera, and is characteristic of shallow water depths. Its species are associated with different sediment types and their distribution is influenced by river discharge. Group 3 is dominated by Bulimina aculeata, B. elongata, Elphidium excavatum, E. cuvillieri, Epistominella vitrea, and Rectuvigerina phlegeri. These species display the highest abundances between 30–100 m water depths. They prevail in muds associated with weak hydrodynamics, low oxygenation, and high organic matter. Group 4 includes species that are more abundant in deep stations and is divided into two subgroups. Subgroup 4A includes Bolivina catanensis, B. italica, B. striatula, Cassidulina laevigata, Stainforthia sp., Nouria polymorphinoides, and Nouria sp., with higher abundances in one or two samples. Subgroup 4B, with Brizalina dilatata, B. spathulata, Bulimina marginata, Nonionella iridea, N. stella, and N. turgida, has patchy distribution. Higher abundances of Nonionella species off the Guadiana River are related to low temperature and salinity.
- RISC-KIT: Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKITPublication . Van Dongeren, Ap; Ciavola, Paolo; Viavattene, Christophe; de Kleermaeker, Simone; Martinez, Grit; Ferreira, Óscar; Costa, Cristina; McCall, RobertRecent and historic high-impact events have demonstrated the flood risks faced by exposed coastal areas. These risks will increase due to climate change and economic development. This requires a re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction DRR strategies and prevention, mitigation and preparedness PMP measures. To this end, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction formulated the Hyogo Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. By their nature, neither is specific about the methods to be used to assess coastal risks, particularly those risks resulting from dune and structure overtopping, the non-stationarity of surge and flash flood events, and coastal morphodynamic response. This paper describes a set of open-source and open-access methods, tools and management approaches to fill this gap. A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework will assess coastal risk at a regional scale. Thus critical hotspots can be identified for which an impact-oriented Early Warning System/Decision Support System is developed. This can be applied in dual mode: as a forecast and warning system and as an ex-ante planning tool to evaluate the vulnerability. The tools are demonstrated on case study sites on a range of EU coasts with diverse geomorphic settings, land use, forcing, hazard types and socio-economic, cultural and environmental characteristics. Specific DRR plans will be developed for all sites. A management guide of PMP measures and management approaches is to be developed. The toolkit will benefit forecasting and civil protection agencies, coastal managers, local government, community members, NGOs, the general public and scientists.
- The record of a high-energy event in a mud entrapment on the inner shelf off the Guadiana riverPublication . Mendes, Isabel; Lobo, F. J.; Schönfeld, J.; Lebreiro, S. L.; Hanebuth, T.; Lantzsch, H.; Reguera, M. I.; Antón, L.; Ferreira, ÓscarRecent environmental changes associated with high-energy events and human impacts were investigated in a mud entrapment confined in the paleo-Guadiana incised valley. Those changes were recorded in a gravity core during the last 2500 years. An erosional event seems to have occurred at ca. 500 cal yr BP but it is not clear how much sediment was removed. This event was followed by an increase in river discharges until ca. 465 cal yr BP while the benthic foraminiferal faunas were dominated by species associated with shallow-water sandy sediments. Upward, sedimentological and benthic foraminiferal variations indicated environmental changes, promoted by variable sediment supplies to the shelf.
- Biotic and abiotic factors governing dune response to storm eventsPublication . Garzon, Juan L.; Costas, Susana; Ferreira, OscarThe alongshore response of dunes to storm events can be extremely variable and,consequently, their capacity to maintain their services, including the protection ofhinterland communities. In this study, the role of biotic and abiotic factors determin-ing the magnitude of dune retreat driven by a severe storm along a 60 km barrierisland system was investigated. Data from high-resolution satellite imagery, digitalterrain models, and wave propagation models were used in this assessment. Theassessed abiotic factors included the backshore volume, dune height, downdrift inletdistance, and incident wave power. The evaluated biotic factor was the vegetationcover, characterized by a vegetation index retrieved from the multispectral imagery.The results revealed large alongshore variability on dune retreat, ranging from negli-gible impact to ca. 40 m of retreat. All combined factors allowed us to explain up to70% of the dune retreat variability through a multi-regression analysis. Among allinvestigated factors, the major contributor controlling the magnitude of dune retreatwas the backshore volume (more robust berms reduced the retreat) followed by thewave power (normal and longitudinal components). Moreover, the removal of localsalient features in the dune line caused the straightening of the coastline, highly con-tributing to the development of dune retreat hotspots. The other evaluated factorshad a smaller influence on reducing coastal retreat, including the vegetation, whosecontribution to dune protection was around one order of magnitude lower than thatprovided by the backshore volume. The results highlight the importance of regionalassessments to understand the causes behind the large alongshore variability ofstorm impacts at dunes. They also state the relatively low influence of the vegetationfrom this climatic region to enhance dune resistance to storms.
- Last ca. 250 years shifts of benthic foraminiferal assemblages in response to natural and anthropogenic impacts, northern Alboran SeaPublication . Mendes, Isabel; Lobo, F. J.; Ferreira, Óscar; Schönfeld, J.; Rosa, F.; Bárcenas, P.; Fernandez-Salas, L. M.; López-González, N.; Dias, J. A.Benthic foraminifera have a wide distribution in space and time and also respond rapidly to environmental changes. The northern Alboran Sea is influenced by a torrential regime with sporadic, intense rainfalls and extended periods of aridity. In addition, anthropogenic activities such as river channel deviation have taken place during the last ca. 150 years. In order to understand the interaction between natural and anthropogenic impacts through time, shifts of most abundant benthic foraminiferal species, species richness and diversity indices were combined with sedimentological analyses and radiocarbon dating of sediment cores collected from the Adra shelf prodeltaic deposit, in the northern Alboran Sea. The strong variations of benthic foraminiferal assemblages involving significant population density changes occurred until ca. 1870 AD, and are interpreted as response to natural processes. Low population densities correlate with rainfall-driven periods of increased sediment supply to the shelf. In contrast, intervals with increased population densities, followed by a raise of successful colonizers and opportunistic species, indicate the establishment of an environment with new ecological constraints. After ca. 1870 AD, the impact of anthropogenic activities with the deviation of the main river course to the east, are responsible for a drastic reduction of sedimentation rates in the study area.
- Historical variation and trends in storminess along the Portuguese South CoastPublication . Almeida, L. P.; Ferreira, Óscar; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Dodet, G.This work investigates historical variation and trends in storm climate for the South Portugal region, using data from wave buoy measurements and from modelling, for the period 1952 to 2009. Several storm parameters (annual number of storms; annual number of days with storms; annual maximum and mean individual storm duration and annual 99.8th percentile of significant wave height) were used to analyse: (1) historical storminess trends; (2) storm parameter variability and relationships; and (3) historical storminess and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). No statistically significant linear increase or decrease was found in any of the storm parameters over the period of interest. The main pattern of storm characteristics and extreme wave heights is an oscillatory variability with intensity peaks every 7–8 yr, and the magnitude of recent variations is comparable with that of variations observed in the earlier parts of the record. In addition, the results reveal that the NAO index is able to explain only a small percentage of the variation in storm wave height, suggesting that more local factors may be of importance in controlling storminess in this region.
- Managing flood risk in fetch-limited environmentsPublication . Carrasco, Ana Rita; Ferreira, Óscar; Matias, AnaThere is little unanimity concerning the environmental modifications potentially forced by the acceleration of global climate change in the coming century, or the future actions required to work towards a sustainable development of natural habitats in the coastal zone. A simple framework to assess the potential implications of flooding in fetch-limited coastal environments (with no relevant wave setup), experiencing both coastal and river flooding, was recently developed. It identifies tide, storm surge, sea level rise and river discharge as the main sources of flooding hazards. Hazard maps differentiate distinctive zones of flooding: the constantly flooded zone, the frequently flooded zone, and the infrequently flooded zone. The framework prioritizes site-based local management, and identifies alternative tools for sustainable coastal resources, to face non-desired flood effects. It was applied to a morphologically complex (tidal channels network, salt marshes, dunes) occupied backbarrier coastal stretch located in Culatra Island, South Portugal (max. fetch ~ 4 km). The obtained inundation levels predicted for 1, 10 and 100 year-return periods were 2.02 m, 2.39 m, and 2.84 m above MSL, respectively. The high-, moderate-, and low-risk zones include about 34 m2 , 1,073 m2 and 31,821 m2 of occupied area, respectively. Besides houses, flood impacts also affect other infrastructures (e.g., walkways and recreational structures). Several best practices principles and guidelines were proposed for the three risk zones, namely the adaptation to uses with ‘added value’, which enhances the local ecological values and strengths economic activities. This study contributes to the method validation at a complex morphological area and enriches the understanding about the potential of flood in fetch-limited conditions, praising the perspective of ‘living with climate change’.