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- A informação contida nas rúbricas contabilísticas relativa à direcção dos lucros no ano subsequentePublication . Peixinho, Rúben; TRIGUEIROS, DUARTEO estudo aborda o problema da previsão de acréscimos ou decréscimos dos lucros por acção de empresas com base na informação contabilística do ano anterior. A amostra utilizada engloba as principais empresas portuguesas, industriais e de serviços, a transaccionar na Bolsa de Valores de Lisboa e Porto entre os anos 1993 e 1997. As variáveis independentes utilizadas na construção dos modelos baseiam-se em indicadores contabilísticos. Os resultados sublinham a importância da informação contabilística na previsão de acréscimos ou decréscimos nos lucros por acção. Ficou demonstrada a grande importância das variáveis artificiais associadas a alguns rácios na melhoria dos resultados. Certas transformações de dados podem, em alguns casos, melhorar a capacidade preditiva dos modelos Um outro factor inovador que contribuiu decisivamente para a melhoria da capacidade preditiva dos modelos foi a constituição de sub-amostras homogéneas segundo as características contabilísticas das empresas.
- How do analysts deal with bad news? Going-concern opinions and analyst behaviourPublication . Peixinho, RúbenSecurity analysts play a central role in the functioning of financial markets through their privileged position as intermediaries between firms and investors. Analyst activity is important to reduce information uncertainty but it is not unbiased. On the one hand, the literature shows that these sophisticated agents promote market efficiency by facilitating the incorporation of new information into stock prices. On the other hand, there is evidence that analysts underreact to negative information and that they tend to be optimistic about firms they follow. Recent studies show that the market does not assimilate immediately the disclosure of a first-time going-concern modified (GCM) audit report. This accounting event is part of a wide range of bad news events which investors are particularly inefficient at dealing with. My thesis explores how analysts deal with the GCM audit report and whether they facilitate the correct assimilation of such information into stock prices. In particular, I use a sample of 924 firms for which their auditors disclose a GCM audit report for the first-time between 01.01.1994 and 31.12.2005. I find that security analysts anticipate the publication of a first-time GCM audit report. My results show that within the one-year period before the GCM disclosure, security analysts downgrade the average recommendation for GCM firms from “buy” to “hold” whereas similar non-GCM firms maintain an average “buy” rating. A number of robustness tests confirm that this finding is not sensitive to the criteria used to select the non-GCM control firm. Moreover, analysts are more likely to cease coverage of GCM firms prior to the GCM event than for matched control firms. In addition, I show that analysts react to the publication of a GCM audit report by ceasing coverage of GCM firms. My results suggest that investors do not recognize an average “hold” recommendation for a stock of a firm immediately before the announcement of a GCM audit report as an unfavourable message even considering that it represents a downgrade from a previous “buy” rating. In particular, I find that the negative short-term market reaction to the publication of a GCM audit report is significantly higher for firms with pre-event analyst coverage compared to firms with no pre-event analyst coverage. This suggests that analyst activity may be misleading the market in terms of the saliency of pre-GCM unfavourable news by issuing “disconfirming opinions” to the market and thus increasing the “surprise” associated with the publication of a GCM audit report. In addition, I show that analyst post-GCM coverage does not increase the efficiency with which the market assimilates the GCM audit report into stock prices. In particular, I fail to find significant differences between the post-GCM return performance of covered firms compared to firms with no analyst coverage. However, I show that the percentage of covered firms following the GCM disclosure is significantly higher for those with best post-GCM return performance than for those with worst post-GCM return performance. This suggests that post-GCM return performance explains the decision of analysts to cover GCM firms but analyst coverage does not influence significantly the post-GCM return performance of such firms. Overall, my thesis contributes to the accounting and finance literature by showing that analyst activity is not providing investors with adequate value-relevant information for their investment decisions in the GCM bad news domain. Firstly, the reluctance of analysts to issue a clear unfavourable message about the stocks of GCM firms seems to explain why the “surprise” associated with the publication of a GCM audit report is greater for covered firms than for non-covered firms. Secondly, the tendency of analysts to cease coverage of GCM firms and the low level of analyst coverage following the GCM announcement may explain why analyst coverage does not reduce the magnitude of the post-GCM negative drift. As such, analyst contribution to the price-discovery process in this case is likely confined to firms with high levels of analyst coverage.
- Do analysts anticipate and react to bankruptcy? EvidencePublication . Coelho, Luís; Peixinho, RúbenFinance literature suggests that financial analysts are sophisticated agents that act as facilitators of market efficiency by releasing relevant information to the market. This paper uses a sample of four major US bankruptcies to explore if analysts are able to disclose information to the market that provides investors with material information for their investment decisions. In particular, we use a qualitative approach to analyse analysts’ reports in order to verify if these agents are able to predict financial and strategic bankruptcies before the event is publicly known. We also investigate how financial analysts react to bankruptcy shortly after it has become effective. Results show that investors cannot rely on analysts’ reports to anticipate corporate failure in both the case of financial and strategic bankruptcies. Our results also suggest that analysts react asymmetrically to strategic and financial bankruptcies shortly after this event is publicly known.
- The financial impact of a withdrawn ISO 9001 certificatePublication . Cândido, Carlos; Coelho, Luís; Peixinho, RúbenThe purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent the loss of the ISO 9001 certification affects the decertified firms’ financial performance. Design/methodology/approach – Using standard event-study methods, this paper matches a sample of 143 Portuguese companies that lost their ISO 9001 certification with similar non-event counterpart firms (according to return-on-assets and size) and compares the performance of these two groups of firms using financial data collected from the AMADEUS database. Findings – Results show no statistical significant differences in the financial performance (as measured by return-on-assets, return-on-sales, and sales growth) between companies that lost their ISO 9001 certification and their matched firms. Although the literature suggests that certification improves firms’ performance and that the benefits of certification may last over long periods of time, this paper’s results suggest that, after decertification, companies do not exhibit over or underperformance in their operations vis-à-vis comparable firms that do not undergo the same event. Originality/value – As far as the authors are aware, this is the first study assessing the impact of ISO 9001 certificate withdrawal on the decertified firms’ financial performance.
- How do analysts deal with bad news? Going-concern opinions and analyst behaviour - A systematic reviewPublication . Peixinho, RúbenThis study systematically reviews the literature that can constitute the foundations for the connection of two areas that have hitherto been developed separately: analyst behaviour and going-concern opinions. Financial literature claims that analyst judgement is biased given their tendency to systematically underreact in the presence of bad news and their tendency to systematically overreact in the presence of good news. Considering that going-concern modifications constitute an unambiguous and acute case of bad news, this event presents a unique opportunity to explore analysts’ anticipation of and reaction to the presence of bad news. This analysis can provide further evidence on analysts’ optimism and their role in the apparent delayed impact of bad news to investors. A systematic review of the literature is developed in order to guarantee methodological rigour in the review process. The systematic search for studies in the refined scope finds 40 papers that are analysed and synthesised. These papers are discussed in order to justify the potential gap in the literature and the research opportunities available for a doctoral study. The results suggest that the connection between these areas can sustain a doctoral study and contribute for the development of the accounting and finance framework.
- The impact of financial restatements on financial markets: a systematic review of the literaturePublication . FRAGOSO, JOÃO; Peixinho, Rúben; Coelho, Luís; Paiva, Inna C. S.Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to discuss the most relevant issues related to the impact of financial restatements in the dynamics of financial markets and identify several research gaps to be investigated in future research. Design/methodology/approach - The methodology is based on a systematic review of the literature described by Tranfield et al. (2003). The final sample includes 47 academic papers published from 1996 to 2019. Findings - Papers in this domain discuss three main topics: how the market prices the announcement of a financial restatement; how financial restatements affect the announcing firm's cost of capital and how financial restatements affect firms' reputation. There are several issues to explore in future research, including whether financial restatements affect the dynamics of financial markets in Europe, whether the market fully and promptly assimilates the information content of a restatement, the role of financial analysts' information disclosures in this process or how regulators may improve the way they provide investors with timely information about firms' restating problems. Research limitations/implications - There is always some degree of subjectivity in the definition of the keywords, search strings and selection criteria in a systematic review. These are all important aspects, as they delimitate the scope of the study and define the sample of papers to be reviewed. Practical implications - The answers to the research questions identified in this paper may provide regulators with information to improve financial accounting and reporting standards and strengthen investors' confidence in accounting information and the dynamics of financial markets. Originality/value - This paper systematically reviews the relevant literature exploring the connection between financial restatements and the dynamics of financial markets. It contributes to the academic community by identifying several research questions that may impact the theory and practice related to accounting quality and capital markets.
- Are security analysts rational? a literature reviewPublication . Peixinho, Rúben; Coelho, Luís; Taffler, Richard J.Rational choice theory and bounded rationality constitute the basis for the discussion in several areas regarding human rationality. In finance, this discussion has been made between traditional finance and behavioural finance approach, which have different perspectives concerning market agents’ rationality. This paper reviews several studies addressing rationality among security analysts. The analysis shows that analysts’systematic optimism seems to be inconsistent with rationality. The discussion of analysts’ optimism is made using two main theories for their biased behaviour: cognitive and economic-based explanations. We review literature on over-optimism, under and overreaction, economic incentives, herding behaviour and analysts’ preference to withhold unfavourable forecasts. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research.
- Análise da inserção profissional dos diplomados da FEUALG: 1999-2003Publication . Cândido, Carlos; Peixinho, Rúben; Coelho, Luís; Pereira, Renato NunoEstudo sobre a inserção profissional de graduados e diplomados da Faculdade de economia da Universidade do Algarve, entre 1999 e 2003, descritivo e baseado em inquérito realizado por correio ao universo. Concluiu-se terem os graduados e diplomados facilidade na sua inserção profissional.
- Inserção profissional dos licenciados em Economia e Gestão de Empresas pela Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Algarve no período de 1999 a 2003Publication . Cândido, Carlos; Coelho, Luís; Peixinho, Rúben; Pereira, Renato NunoO primeiro estudo realizado sobre a inserção profissional dos licenciados da Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Algarve abrangeu os licenciados que concluíram o seu curso até 1998. Passados cinco anos sobre a realização desse estudo, tornava-se necessário realizar um outro, que abrangesse os restantes licenciados. Para colmatar essa necessidade, optou-se por uma metodologia semelhante à utilizada em 1998, essencialmente descritiva e baseada num inquérito pelo correio. Os dados obtidos permitem retirar conclusões relevantes para os actuais e futuros licenciados, bem como para a própria Faculdade de Economia. Em geral, as conclusões são muito positivas e sugerem que, apesar do contexto económico desfavorável dos últimos anos, a inserção profissional parece estar tão ou mais facilitada que no período até 1998.
- Inserção profissional dos licenciados em economia e gestão de empresas pela Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Algarve no período de 1999 a 2003Publication . Cândido, Carlos; Coelho, Luís; Peixinho, Rúben; Pereira, Renato NunoO primeiro estudo realizado sobre a inserção profissional dos licenciados da Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Algarve abrangeu os licenciados que concluíramo seu curso até 1998.Passados cinco anossobre a realização desse estudo, tornava-se necessário realizar um outro, que abrangesse os restantes licenciados. Para cohnatar essa necessidade, optou-se por uma metodologia semelhante à utilizada em 1998, essenciahnente descritiva e baseada num inquérito pelo correio. Os dados obtidos permitem retirar conclusões relevantes para os actuais e futuros licenciados, bem como para a própria Faculdade de Economia. Em geral, as conclusões são muito positivas e sugeremque, apesar do contexto económicodesfavorável dos últimos anos, a inserçãoprofissionalparece estartão oumaisfacilitada que no período até 1998