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- Long-term population dynamics: Theory and reality in a peatland ecosystemPublication . Connor, Simon; Colombaroli, Daniele; Confortini, Federico; Gobet, Erika; Ilyashuk, Boris P.; Ilyashuk, Elena A.; van Leeuwen, Jacqueline F. N.; Lamentowicz, Mariusz; van der Knaap, Willem O.; Malysheva, Elena; Marchetto, Aldo; Margalitadze, Nino; Mazei, Yuri; Mitchell, Edward A. D.; Payne, Richard J.; Ammann, Brigitta1. Population dynamics is a field rich in theory and poor in long-term observational data. Finding sources of long-term data is critical as ecosystems around the globe continue to change in ways that current theories and models have failed to predict. Here we show how long-term ecological data can improve our understanding about palaeo-population change in response to external environmental factors, antecedent conditions and community diversity. 2. We examined a radiometrically dated sediment core from the Didachara Mire in the mountains of south-western Georgia (Caucasus) and analysed multiple biological proxies (pollen, fern spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, midges, mites and testate amoebae). Numerical techniques, including multivariate ordination, rarefaction, independent splitting and trait analysis, were used to assess the major drivers of changes in community diversity and population stability. Integrated multi-proxy analyses are very rare in the Caucasus, making this a unique record of long-term ecological change in a global biodiversity hotspot. 3. Synthesis. Population changes in the terrestrial community coincided primarily with external environmental changes, while populations within the peatland community were affected by both internal and external drivers at different times. In general, our observations accord with theoretical predictions that population increases lead to greater stability and declines lead to instability. Random variation and interspecific competition explain population dynamics that diverged from predictions. Population change and diversity trends were positively correlated in all taxonomic groups, suggesting that population-level instability is greater in more diverse communities, even though diverse communities are themselves more stable. There is a continuing need to confront population theory with long-term data to test the predictive success of theoretical frameworks, thereby improving their ability to predict future change.
- How old is the Tasmanian cultural landscape? a test of landscape openness using quantitative land-cover reconstructionsPublication . Mariani, Michela; Connor, Simon; Fletcher, Michael-S.; Theuerkauf, Martin; Kunes, Petr; Jacobsen, Geraldine; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Zawadzki, AtunAim: To test competing hypotheses about the timing and extent of Holocene landscape opening using pollen-based quantitative land-cover estimates. Location: Dove Lake, Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia. Methods: Fossil pollen data were incorporated into pollen dispersal models and corrected for differences in pollen productivity among key plant taxa. Mechanistic models (REVEALS-Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites) employing different models for pollen dispersal (Gaussian plume and Lagrangian stochastic models) were evaluated and applied in the Southern Hemisphere for the first time. Results: Validation of the REVEALS model with vegetation cover data suggests an overall better performance of the Lagrangian stochastic model. Regional land-cover estimates for forest and non-forest plant taxa show persistent landscape openness throughout the Holocene (average landscape openness similar to 50%). Gymnoschoenus sphaerocephalus, an indicator of moorland vegetation, shows higher values during the early Holocene (11.7-9 ka) and declines slightly through the mid-Holocene (9-4.5 ka) during a phase of partial landscape afforestation. Rain forest cover reduced (from similar to 40% to similar to 20%) during the period between 4.2-3.5 ka. Main conclusions: Pollen percentages severely under-represent landscape openness in western Tasmania and this bias has fostered an over-estimation of Holocene forest cover from pollen data. Treeless vegetation dominated Holocene landscapes of the Dove Lake area, allowing us to reject models of landscape evolution that invoke late-Holocene replacement of a rain forest-dominated landscape by moorland. Instead, we confirm a model of Late Pleistocene inheritance of open vegetation. Rapid forest decline occurred after c.4 ka, likely in response to regional moisture decline.
- Paleoenvironmental evolution of the Guadiana Estuary, Portugal, during the Holocene: a modern foraminifera analog approachPublication . Camacho, Sarita; Boski, T.; Moura, Delminda; Scott, David; Connor, Simon; Pereira, LauraIn this paper, we reconstruct the Holocene paleoenvironmental evolution of the Guadiana Estuary, southwestern Iberian Peninsula. Two previously studied boreholes (CM3 and CM5) were revisited and analyzed in the light of a foraminifera modern analog approach. Cluster analyses define four assemblages with different biocenotic, taphonomic, elevation and distance-to-sea settings, which serve as a baseline for paleoassemblages interpretation. Faunal changes along the sedimentary sequences, together with previous sedimentological and chronological data, redefine the different phases of environmental evolution in the Guadiana Estuary since ca. 13 kyr cal. BP, with special emphasis on the Holocene marine highstand. Estuarine flooding began synchronously in both locations (ca. 9 kyr cal. BP) but manifested differently in each sedimentary sequence. The most seaward borehole records a more evident and longer highstand (ca. 8.8–3.8 kyr cal. BP), characterized by the occurrence of subtidal environments and by the presence of open marine species (Pararotalia cf. spinigera, planktic forms and a significant number of exotic/allochthonous tests), indicating warmer and more marine conditions than today. In the most landward borehole, the highstand is shorter (ca. 8–7.6 kyr cal. BP) and less intense, characterized by the presence of a diverse, mainly autochthonous, open estuary assemblage, dominated by Ammonia aberdoveyensis and Haynesina germanica. At 4.4 kyr cal. BP, during a long deceleration phase of regional sea-level rise, a short but well-defined pulse of marine influence is recorded in CM5, when open estuarine assemblages reappear and replace marsh agglutinated assemblages, suggesting a new submergence phase. This short event is not identified in the previous works carried out in the same area, thus further data are needed to understand whether it is consequent from a global, warming period or whether it resulted only from local and ephemeral forcing effects.
- Geochemical characteristics of sediments along the margins of an atlantic-mediterranean estuary (the Guadiana, Southeast Portugal): spatial and seasonal variationsPublication . Camacho, Sarita; Moura, Delminda; Connor, Simon; Boski, T.; Gomes, AnaThe present work describes spatial and seasonal variability in grain-size, pH and elemental characteristics (TOC, TIC, TN and C/N) in superficial sediments, as well as salinity, temperature and oxygen in the water, within the intertidal range of the Guadiana Estuary, SW Iberian Peninsula, during the year 2010. The results indicate that environmental parameters in the estuary are strongly dependent on spatial patterns, which reflect seasonal oscillations in freshwater discharge. The sediment is generally poorly sorted, with a symmetrical to very finely skewed distribution, in accordance with the low-energy conditions typical of the deposition areas. During winter, heavy rains forced the continuous discharge of Europe’s largest reservoir, the Alqueva dam, creating exceptional hydrodynamic conditions and causing coarser sediment deposition in the estuary. High marsh areas are controlled by flood tides, promoting vertical accretion of muddy sediments, especially silts. The lower areas of the saltmarsh and-mud flat areas are controlled by the ebb, with more efficient export of fines toward the platform and retention of sands, sometimes with significant amounts of bioclasts. In winter (average Q = 654 m3 s -1), salinity remained low throughout the estuary with the highest values (< 3) recorded up to 3 km inland from the river mouth, except in the most confined environments subject to greater evaporation. In summer (average Q = 52 m3 s -1), the estuarine waters are better mixed and significant saltwater intrusion extends approximately 8 km inland. The seasonal variation in surface water temperature was very high, with a difference of ca 14 º C in the maximum temperature recorded in winter and summer. A clear relationship between elevation (in relation to mean sea level) and organic matter, pH and particle size was observed. In the higher areas of the marsh, where the hydrodynamics is attenuated, differential deposition of fine sediments promotes organic matter entrapment and low pH. Sedimentary organic matter derives from a mixture of native aquatic and terrestrial sources. The mid-upper estuary areas and higher zones of the saltmarsh in the lower estuary incorporate a greater terrestrial component, whereas the low-middle marsh areas of the lower estuary experience a substantial contribution from indigenous aquatic sources. The present data help to understand the present environmental condition of the Guadiana Estuary and contribute baseline data for future climatic and environmental management studies based on sediment-dependent proxies
- Testate amoebae and tintinnids as spatial and seasonal indicators in the intertidal margins of Guadiana Estuary (southeastern Portugal)Publication . Camacho, Sarita; Connor, Simon; Asioli, Alessandra; Boski, T.; Scott, DavidThe present study gathers pioneering taxonomical and community data on testate amoebae and agglutinated tintinnids, analyzing their seasonal and spatial distribution patterns in the mesotidal system of the Guadiana Estuary, southeastern Portugal. To evaluate both groups’ potential as bioindicators in climate monitoring and paleoenvironmental reconstructions, their abundance, diversity and living proportions were compared to elevation in relation to mean sea-level, marine influence and to periods of elevated water levels. The distributions of testate amoebae and tintinnid total assemblages were also related to major physicochemical variables by means of multivariate analysis. From 49 surface sediment samples collected in winter and summer 2010, 17 species (25 strains) of testate amoebae were identified (in the 63 m fraction). The Centropyxidae, mainly represented by Centropyxis aculeata, Centropyxis arcula and Centropyxis constricta, had the greatest density (71% of total individuals), while the Difflugidae represented the most species (82% of total species). Higher diversities and densities were observed in winter in the upper estuary, where salinity is negligible, and in the middle estuary where they are concentrated at the lower levels of the intertidal zone. Few or no individuals were observed in the highest marsh zones. In winter, dead testate amoebae were dominant, with empty tests accumulating in the sediments from post-mortem transport by high river discharge. In summer, an increase in the living fraction is observed, with living testate amoebae along the entire estuary, which could indicate that some species are able to live in the lower reaches of the estuary. Along with the testate amoebae, two species of agglutinated tintinnids (>63 m), Stenosemella ventricosa and Tintinnopsis cf. lata, were abundant in the sediments. Their highest abundances were observed in summer. Living individuals were only recorded in summer, mainly in the vicinities of freshwater and sewage outflows, where elevated nutrient concentrations may be expected. The present study demonstrates that both testate amoebae and tintinnids have well defined patterns in their temporal and spatial distribution, offering high bioindicator potential in environmental/climate monitoring studies as well as in paleoenvironmental reconstructions.
- Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesisPublication . Bartlein, Patrick; Harrison, S. P.; Brewer, S.; Connor, S.; Davis, B. A. S.; Gajewski, K.; Guiot, J.; Harrison-Prentice, T. I.; Henderson, A.; Peyron, O.; Prentice, I. C.; Scholze, M.; Seppa, H.; Shuman, B.; Sugita, S.; Thompson, R. S.; Viau, A. E.; Williams, J.; Wu, H.Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from C-14-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.
- Preface: Guadiana river estuary. Investigating the past, present and futurePublication . Connor, SimonEstuaries are some of the most dynamic and complex environments in the world. The places where rivers meet the sea are subject to cycles of constant change – from the waves and currents that move particles of sand and mud every second, to the daily ebb and flow of the tides and the more dramatic effects of periodic floods, droughts and storms. Over thousands of years, estuaries are created, destroyed and recreated by sea-level changes. Few of the earth’s landforms enjoy such a brief and varied existence. The complex interplay between terrestrial, fluvial, coastal and marine realms makes estuaries unique in terms of their landscapes and biodiversity. The mixing of salt and fresh water in estuaries is physiologically challenging to plants and animals, both aquatic and marine. Species inhabiting the transitional zones between land and sea have evolved to deal with these challenges in often surprising ways, adapting their lifecycles and metabolisms to take advantage of the rich resources that estuaries provide. Per square metre, estuaries rank among the most productive habitats worldwide (McLusky & Elliott 2004).
- Taxonomy, ecology and biogeographical trends of dominant benthic foraminifera species from an Atlantic-Mediterranean estuary (the Guadiana, southeast Portugal)Publication . Camacho, Sarita; Moura, Delminda; Connor, Simon; Scott, David; Boski, T.This study analyses the taxonomy, ecology and biogeography of the species of benthic foraminifera living on the intertidal margins of the Guadiana Estuary (SE Portugal, SW Spain). Of the 54 taxa identified during sampling campaigns in winter and summer, 49 are systematically listed and illustrated by scanning electron microscope (SEM) photographs. Ammonia spp. were the most ubiquitous calcareous taxa in both seasons. Morphological analysis and SEM images suggested three distinct morphotypes of the genus Ammonia, two of which proved to be Ammonia aberdoveyensis on the basis of partial rRNA analyses. Jadammina macrescens and Miliammina fusca were the most ubiquitous agglutinated taxa in the estuary. Jadammina macrescens dominates the upper-marsh zones almost exclusively, occurring at very high densities. Ammonia spp. are the most abundant in the low-marsh and tidal-flats of the lower reaches of the Guadiana Estuary, but are widespread throughout the estuary, especially during summer when environmental conditions favor their proliferation. Miliammina fusca dominates the sparsely vegetated low-marsh and tidal-flat zones of the upper reaches, where it is associated with calcareous species. Due to its geographical position, the Guadiana system shares characteristics of both Atlantic and Mediterranean estuaries. This is reflected in the foraminiferal assemblages, with a dominance of thermophilous species and an ecological zonation typical of the Mediterranean climatic zone.
- Drought, fire and grazing precursors to large-scale pine forest declinePublication . Connor, Simon; Araújo, João; Boski, Tomasz; Gomes, Ana; Gomes, Sandra D.; Leira, Manel; Freitas, Maria da Conceição; Andrade, Cesar; Morales‐Molino, César; Franco‐Múgica, Fátima; Akindola, Rufus B.; Vannière, BorisAim Temperate forests are currently facing multiple stresses due to climate change, biological invasions, habitat fragmentation and fire regime change. How these stressors interact with each other influences how, when and whether ecosystems recover, or whether they adapt or transition to a different ecological state. Because forest recovery or collapse may take longer than a human lifetime, predicting the outcomes of different stressor combinations remains difficult. A clearer vision of future forest trajectories in a changing world may be gained by examining collapses of forests in the past. Here, we use long-term ecological data to conduct a post-mortem examination of the decline of maritime pine forests (Pinus pinaster Ait.) on the SW Iberian Peninsula 7000-6500 years ago. Location Portugal and Spain. Methods We compared four palaeoecological records-two with pine declines and two without-using a multiproxy approach. Bioclimatic differences between the four sites were explored. Proxies for past vegetation and disturbance (fire and grazing) were compared with independent palaeoclimatic records. We performed functional traits analysis and used phase plots to examine the causes of pine decline. Results The pine decline represents a critical transition in SW Iberia, which lies close to maritime pine's bioclimatic limits. Prolonged drought likely killed trees and suppressed the fires that normally stimulate pine germination and pinewood recovery. Increased grazing pressure facilitated the rapid spread of resprouter shrubs. These competed with pine trees and ultimately replaced them. Our data highlight complex interactions between climate, fire, grazing and forest resilience. Main Conclusions The pine decline occurred at least a century after post-fire resprouters overtook obligate seeders in the vegetation, constituting an early-warning signal of forest loss. Fire suppression, resprouter encroachment and grazing may threaten the persistence of Mediterranean forests as droughts become more frequent and extreme.
- Holocene sea level and climate interactions on wet dune slack evolution in SW Portugal: a model for future scenarios?Publication . Leira, Manel; Freitas, Maria C.; Ferreira, Tania; Cruces, Anabela; Connor, Simon; Andrade, Cesar; Lopes, Vera; Bao, RobertoWe examine the Holocene environmental changes in a wet dune slack of the Portuguese coast, Poco do Barbarroxa de Baixo. Lithology, organic matter, biological proxies and high-resolution chronology provide estimations of sediment accumulation rates and changes in environmental conditions in relation to sea-level change and climate variability during the Holocene. Results show that the wet dune slack was formed 7.5 cal. ka BP, contemporaneous with the last stages of the rapid sea-level rise. This depositional environment formed under frequent freshwater flooding and water ponding that allowed the development and post-mortem accumulation of abundant plant remains. The wetland evolved into mostly palustrine conditions over the next 2000 years, until a phase of stabilization in relative sea-level rise, when sedimentation rates slowed down to 0.04 mm yr(-1), between 5.3 and 2.5 cal. ka BP. Later, about 0.8 cal. ka BP, high-energy events, likely due to enhanced storminess and more frequent onshore winds, caused the collapse of the foredune above the wetlands' seaward margin. The delicate balance between hydrology (controlled by sea-level rise and climate change), sediment supply and storminess modulates the habitat's resilience and ecological stability. This underpins the relevance of integrating past records in coastal wet dune slacks management in a scenario of constant adaptation processes.